* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL072020 07/24/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 48 51 55 57 59 59 62 64 67 70 72 74 77 79 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 48 51 55 57 59 59 62 64 67 70 72 74 77 79 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 45 46 47 49 50 51 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 5 7 10 12 8 15 13 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 5 6 5 8 4 2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 331 312 254 282 312 260 289 240 278 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.3 28.4 28.7 28.7 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 142 144 149 149 153 151 152 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 149 142 144 149 149 153 151 152 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.8 -53.4 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 52 53 53 53 54 58 62 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 9 10 10 9 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 37 29 21 17 34 28 37 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 7 8 18 25 40 23 28 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -4 -8 -10 -2 2 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 477 486 437 381 246 178 296 219 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.2 10.4 10.9 11.3 12.3 13.2 13.7 13.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 53.1 54.5 55.8 57.3 58.8 62.2 65.5 68.8 72.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 15 16 17 16 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 44 33 39 52 44 39 38 66 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 18. 21. 23. 25. 27. 27. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 12. 14. 14. 17. 20. 22. 25. 27. 29. 32. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 9.9 53.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072020 GONZALO 07/24/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.77 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.28 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.61 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 271.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.66 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.66 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 19.0% 13.4% 10.6% 10.0% 12.4% 13.7% 19.5% Logistic: 5.2% 18.0% 11.2% 4.5% 3.0% 5.6% 8.2% 9.3% Bayesian: 0.4% 5.4% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 1.4% Consensus: 3.8% 14.1% 8.6% 5.1% 4.3% 6.1% 7.4% 10.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072020 GONZALO 07/24/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072020 GONZALO 07/24/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 47 48 51 55 57 59 59 62 64 67 70 72 74 77 79 18HR AGO 45 44 45 46 49 53 55 57 57 60 62 65 68 70 72 75 77 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 45 49 51 53 53 56 58 61 64 66 68 71 73 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 42 44 46 46 49 51 54 57 59 61 64 66 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT