* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL072020 07/24/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 55 58 61 67 68 72 72 73 69 71 72 74 75 78 81 V (KT) LAND 50 52 55 58 61 67 68 72 72 73 69 71 72 74 75 78 81 V (KT) LGEM 50 51 53 55 57 62 64 67 70 72 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 9 7 7 8 8 11 6 10 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 3 6 6 4 3 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 313 323 320 262 287 312 282 313 251 252 257 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.7 28.6 29.0 28.9 29.0 28.6 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 150 146 149 148 154 152 153 148 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 149 151 150 146 149 148 154 152 153 148 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 8 11 10 10 9 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 54 53 54 54 55 58 61 66 67 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 10 11 12 9 10 8 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 27 35 30 23 28 34 40 43 59 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 9 3 14 15 22 39 43 37 44 28 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -6 -6 -8 -8 2 6 17 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 553 514 502 509 433 173 211 335 239 167 379 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.0 10.2 10.6 10.9 11.7 12.6 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 51.2 52.4 53.6 55.1 56.5 59.7 62.7 65.8 68.6 71.8 75.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 14 15 15 16 15 15 15 17 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 41 43 40 38 55 39 40 47 70 62 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 20. 21. 23. 23. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -3. -3. -6. -8. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 18. 22. 22. 23. 20. 21. 22. 24. 25. 28. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 9.9 51.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072020 GONZALO 07/24/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.82 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.29 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.73 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.63 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 277.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.65 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.64 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 29% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 21.4% 15.0% 11.9% 11.2% 13.7% 26.3% 28.5% Logistic: 8.5% 32.8% 22.2% 9.6% 7.1% 12.2% 15.2% 24.5% Bayesian: 0.8% 13.5% 3.4% 0.2% 0.1% 1.1% 1.2% 6.8% Consensus: 5.5% 22.6% 13.5% 7.2% 6.1% 9.0% 14.2% 20.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 9.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072020 GONZALO 07/24/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072020 GONZALO 07/24/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 55 58 61 67 68 72 72 73 69 71 72 74 75 78 81 18HR AGO 50 49 52 55 58 64 65 69 69 70 66 68 69 71 72 75 78 12HR AGO 50 47 46 49 52 58 59 63 63 64 60 62 63 65 66 69 72 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 43 49 50 54 54 55 51 53 54 56 57 60 63 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT