* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL072020 07/24/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 54 58 61 67 69 71 73 72 71 74 75 77 79 82 85 V (KT) LAND 50 51 54 58 61 67 69 71 73 72 71 74 75 77 79 82 85 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 51 53 56 61 64 66 68 69 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 6 10 6 7 11 9 12 7 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -2 0 2 7 6 1 0 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 39 313 322 318 261 307 271 301 259 269 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.0 28.9 29.0 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 150 147 145 147 151 154 152 154 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 149 150 150 147 145 147 151 154 152 154 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -54.0 -53.7 -54.0 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 55 51 50 51 55 54 59 62 63 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 11 10 10 11 10 10 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 33 26 35 30 25 38 39 43 44 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 0 -8 2 9 40 42 28 38 17 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -5 -4 -5 -10 -1 4 12 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 601 559 523 531 515 315 192 300 332 247 311 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.0 10.2 10.5 10.8 11.5 12.5 13.4 14.1 14.4 14.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 50.0 51.3 52.6 53.9 55.2 58.2 61.3 64.1 67.3 70.5 73.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 14 15 15 15 16 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 38 40 41 37 40 50 41 45 71 77 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 20. 22. 23. 23. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 11. 17. 19. 21. 23. 22. 21. 24. 25. 27. 29. 32. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 9.8 50.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072020 GONZALO 07/24/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.86 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.26 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.73 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 282.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.64 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.63 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 20.3% 14.5% 12.0% 11.3% 13.5% 15.8% 19.8% Logistic: 5.3% 29.8% 22.6% 14.2% 10.7% 12.9% 10.9% 18.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 1.3% Consensus: 4.0% 17.6% 12.6% 8.8% 7.4% 8.8% 9.0% 13.3% DTOPS: 3.0% 10.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072020 GONZALO 07/24/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072020 GONZALO 07/24/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 51 54 58 61 67 69 71 73 72 71 74 75 77 79 82 85 18HR AGO 50 49 52 56 59 65 67 69 71 70 69 72 73 75 77 80 83 12HR AGO 50 47 46 50 53 59 61 63 65 64 63 66 67 69 71 74 77 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 43 49 51 53 55 54 53 56 57 59 61 64 67 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT