* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL072020 07/23/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 53 56 59 64 67 67 70 70 70 67 69 71 72 75 77 V (KT) LAND 50 51 53 56 59 64 67 67 70 70 70 67 69 71 72 75 77 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 50 52 54 59 62 64 64 65 65 64 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 3 8 12 10 12 13 15 9 15 6 14 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 -1 -1 0 2 2 2 0 -1 1 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 33 280 287 313 314 300 324 291 304 261 260 244 241 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.9 28.7 28.5 29.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 150 150 147 149 148 147 146 152 149 146 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 149 149 150 150 147 149 148 147 146 152 149 146 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 10 8 10 9 10 8 10 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 55 55 50 49 54 56 62 64 66 63 62 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 11 11 11 12 10 10 9 8 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 34 32 22 32 22 35 36 47 48 66 69 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 1 1 -13 13 19 43 53 40 46 26 23 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 -6 -6 -6 -9 6 8 16 15 13 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 668 603 559 513 506 386 95 178 258 178 248 301 249 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.7 9.9 10.0 10.2 10.3 10.9 11.6 12.3 13.0 13.7 14.4 15.1 16.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 48.8 50.0 51.3 52.7 54.2 57.3 60.7 63.9 66.9 69.9 72.9 76.0 79.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 14 15 17 17 16 15 15 15 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 38 40 41 37 56 32 28 42 72 57 42 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 20. 21. 23. 23. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -5. -8. -10. -16. -17. -16. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 17. 17. 20. 20. 20. 17. 19. 21. 22. 25. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 9.7 48.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072020 GONZALO 07/23/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.81 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.25 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.73 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 273.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.65 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.64 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.95 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 19.8% 14.1% 11.6% 10.9% 13.1% 14.0% 17.4% Logistic: 5.3% 26.2% 21.0% 12.1% 7.5% 9.6% 7.4% 11.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 1.1% Consensus: 4.0% 16.1% 11.9% 7.9% 6.2% 7.6% 7.2% 10.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072020 GONZALO 07/23/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072020 GONZALO 07/23/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 51 53 56 59 64 67 67 70 70 70 67 69 71 72 75 77 18HR AGO 50 49 51 54 57 62 65 65 68 68 68 65 67 69 70 73 75 12HR AGO 50 47 46 49 52 57 60 60 63 63 63 60 62 64 65 68 70 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 43 48 51 51 54 54 54 51 53 55 56 59 61 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT