* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL072020 07/23/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 61 64 66 71 75 75 76 78 77 77 77 80 82 85 88 V (KT) LAND 55 58 61 64 66 71 75 75 76 78 77 77 77 80 82 85 88 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 61 64 67 73 77 77 79 80 78 78 80 82 85 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 5 1 9 14 8 11 8 15 6 8 8 12 6 8 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 2 0 0 2 4 7 0 -1 1 0 -1 0 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 19 28 263 287 313 282 319 271 300 258 281 221 268 207 272 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.8 29.4 29.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 149 149 150 150 146 147 150 150 152 153 152 150 160 162 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 146 149 149 150 150 146 147 150 150 152 153 152 149 157 159 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -53.6 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -53.6 -53.8 -53.3 -53.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 10 9 9 9 11 10 11 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 54 55 54 52 54 58 59 63 66 63 61 60 61 62 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 13 11 10 10 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 32 28 29 20 25 25 34 35 56 50 67 45 47 21 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -7 -7 -1 2 -2 25 44 40 23 48 29 3 31 0 -4 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -3 -5 -6 -9 10 8 11 11 12 8 2 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 733 664 601 559 523 485 260 167 267 302 306 263 145 113 338 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.6 9.7 9.8 10.0 10.2 10.8 11.4 12.2 13.0 13.9 14.9 15.7 16.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 47.7 48.9 50.0 51.3 52.6 55.6 58.7 61.8 64.7 67.5 70.3 73.2 76.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 13 14 15 16 15 15 14 14 15 14 13 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 34 38 40 41 44 47 38 37 74 70 84 50 74 76 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 12. 12. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -6. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 16. 20. 20. 21. 23. 22. 22. 22. 25. 27. 30. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 9.6 47.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072020 GONZALO 07/23/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.82 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.24 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.35 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 288.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.64 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.59 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.12 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.83 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 21.4% 15.3% 12.8% 11.8% 19.6% 15.3% 19.6% Logistic: 4.0% 15.5% 12.3% 6.9% 2.7% 8.5% 7.3% 12.7% Bayesian: 0.7% 4.0% 2.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% 3.0% 1.4% Consensus: 4.2% 13.6% 10.1% 6.6% 4.8% 9.6% 8.5% 11.2% DTOPS: 23.0% 22.0% 13.0% 5.0% 3.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072020 GONZALO 07/23/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072020 GONZALO 07/23/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 4( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 58 61 64 66 71 75 75 76 78 77 77 77 80 82 85 88 18HR AGO 55 54 57 60 62 67 71 71 72 74 73 73 73 76 78 81 84 12HR AGO 55 52 51 54 56 61 65 65 66 68 67 67 67 70 72 75 78 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 47 52 56 56 57 59 58 58 58 61 63 66 69 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT