* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL072020 07/22/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 54 59 64 70 75 76 80 80 82 80 80 81 84 88 90 V (KT) LAND 45 49 54 59 64 70 75 76 80 80 82 80 80 81 84 88 90 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 54 58 63 71 77 82 86 89 89 89 86 86 87 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 6 7 10 8 12 10 10 11 8 7 11 6 11 1 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 -2 -3 0 0 2 1 3 0 -1 0 0 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 25 26 352 350 348 311 342 313 332 316 337 258 258 241 218 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.3 28.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 143 146 149 148 145 152 153 150 151 148 147 144 151 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 140 139 143 146 149 148 145 152 153 150 151 147 146 144 151 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 10 8 10 9 11 10 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 52 55 53 52 56 58 62 63 65 64 63 62 62 65 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 10 11 11 11 10 11 11 11 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 36 29 25 23 23 27 28 32 29 59 57 58 63 67 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -10 2 11 -8 -11 0 2 24 41 34 22 34 22 5 23 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -2 -2 -5 -6 -7 -5 -2 4 9 16 15 7 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 995 910 835 751 667 561 525 380 113 218 233 227 277 234 312 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.2 10.5 10.9 11.8 12.6 13.4 14.3 15.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 44.4 45.5 46.7 47.9 49.2 51.7 54.4 57.4 60.8 64.5 67.9 70.7 72.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 12 13 14 16 18 18 16 13 14 18 20 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 36 37 34 31 35 39 33 54 35 33 69 67 69 38 38 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 22. 24. 26. 26. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 12. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 19. 25. 30. 31. 35. 35. 37. 35. 35. 36. 39. 43. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 9.9 44.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072020 GONZALO 07/22/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 7.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.79 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.23 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 252.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.68 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.63 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.12 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.8% 31.3% 19.9% 13.3% 12.0% 18.4% 21.5% 21.8% Logistic: 10.5% 34.4% 36.8% 24.6% 7.6% 17.4% 7.9% 13.3% Bayesian: 1.9% 10.8% 13.4% 0.8% 0.4% 2.8% 0.7% 1.7% Consensus: 7.1% 25.5% 23.4% 12.9% 6.6% 12.9% 10.0% 12.3% DTOPS: 11.0% 24.0% 10.0% 4.0% 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072020 GONZALO 07/22/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072020 GONZALO 07/22/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 49 54 59 64 70 75 76 80 80 82 80 80 81 84 88 90 18HR AGO 45 44 49 54 59 65 70 71 75 75 77 75 75 76 79 83 85 12HR AGO 45 42 41 46 51 57 62 63 67 67 69 67 67 68 71 75 77 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 40 46 51 52 56 56 58 56 56 57 60 64 66 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT