* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL072020 07/22/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 50 55 60 67 74 77 80 80 80 79 79 82 84 89 90 V (KT) LAND 40 45 50 55 60 67 74 77 80 80 80 79 79 82 84 89 90 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 49 53 57 67 75 81 86 89 89 87 85 87 88 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 10 5 7 11 7 10 5 11 7 14 8 8 13 11 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 0 0 -1 -1 0 3 4 2 -2 0 -2 -3 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 15 29 15 331 335 323 333 282 304 294 329 271 284 219 274 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.8 29.0 28.5 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 139 142 146 148 147 147 151 155 146 150 149 150 155 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 140 140 139 142 146 148 147 147 151 155 146 150 148 150 155 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -54.1 -53.7 -53.9 -53.5 -53.9 -53.6 -53.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 10 10 11 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 51 51 54 53 57 59 60 62 62 62 61 59 57 61 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 11 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 22 26 22 20 21 20 28 24 42 40 50 46 54 46 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -3 -18 -2 5 -19 -7 -4 16 32 33 18 25 9 7 9 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -2 -4 -3 -5 -3 -5 0 0 1 8 7 10 7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1113 1015 925 839 755 620 536 485 228 156 267 257 245 252 287 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.1 10.4 10.9 11.4 12.1 13.0 14.2 15.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 43.0 44.2 45.4 46.6 47.9 50.2 52.9 55.7 59.0 62.6 66.2 69.0 71.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 12 14 15 17 18 16 14 14 20 23 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 36 38 34 31 39 38 41 47 35 35 65 59 93 55 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 23. 25. 27. 30. 30. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 6. 3. 1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 20. 27. 34. 37. 40. 40. 40. 39. 39. 42. 44. 49. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 9.9 43.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072020 GONZALO 07/22/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 8.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.77 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.22 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 244.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.68 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.66 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.10 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.91 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 3.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 32% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.6% 33.2% 21.7% 13.4% 12.0% 17.6% 20.4% 32.0% Logistic: 14.3% 37.7% 38.5% 25.5% 9.2% 23.2% 15.3% 20.5% Bayesian: 2.9% 15.0% 19.7% 1.2% 0.9% 5.9% 1.7% 4.2% Consensus: 8.9% 28.6% 26.6% 13.3% 7.4% 15.6% 12.4% 18.9% DTOPS: 12.0% 34.0% 9.0% 3.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072020 GONZALO 07/22/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072020 GONZALO 07/22/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 45 50 55 60 67 74 77 80 80 80 79 79 82 84 89 90 18HR AGO 40 39 44 49 54 61 68 71 74 74 74 73 73 76 78 83 84 12HR AGO 40 37 36 41 46 53 60 63 66 66 66 65 65 68 70 75 76 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 35 42 49 52 55 55 55 54 54 57 59 64 65 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT