* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN AL072020 07/22/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 41 48 55 62 66 70 73 75 76 80 83 87 89 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 41 48 55 62 66 70 73 75 76 80 83 87 89 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 35 40 46 52 57 62 66 68 70 71 75 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 13 11 7 5 9 10 8 11 10 10 12 12 6 1 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -2 0 3 -1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 27 8 26 32 355 339 313 333 296 328 326 340 294 327 58 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.9 29.0 28.5 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 138 140 139 142 146 147 145 152 155 147 150 148 145 147 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 135 138 140 139 142 146 147 145 152 155 147 150 148 145 147 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 10 8 11 9 10 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 53 51 53 56 55 60 59 62 64 67 67 68 69 74 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 8 9 9 10 9 10 10 9 7 6 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 23 22 24 19 26 28 33 25 28 26 45 44 72 72 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -6 -3 -11 2 7 -13 -4 6 46 39 21 34 38 33 52 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -6 -3 -2 -3 -5 -9 -7 -7 5 12 16 9 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1211 1124 1042 952 873 707 580 567 344 127 243 160 179 313 305 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.9 11.4 11.9 12.6 13.2 13.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 41.9 42.9 44.0 45.2 46.4 49.0 51.7 54.6 57.9 61.4 65.2 69.0 72.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 12 12 13 14 16 16 18 19 19 18 18 19 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 28 36 39 37 32 38 33 53 35 28 56 38 36 30 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 15. 20. 24. 27. 30. 33. 36. 37. 39. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 18. 25. 32. 36. 40. 43. 45. 46. 50. 53. 57. 59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.9 41.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072020 SEVEN 07/22/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.77 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.22 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.50 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 177.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.73 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.13 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 19.3% 14.0% 11.0% 9.8% 11.8% 12.4% 20.7% Logistic: 10.0% 28.5% 26.9% 17.7% 7.3% 17.9% 18.6% 28.6% Bayesian: 1.0% 6.0% 6.2% 0.4% 0.2% 2.1% 0.4% 2.5% Consensus: 5.8% 17.9% 15.7% 9.7% 5.8% 10.6% 10.5% 17.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072020 SEVEN 07/22/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072020 SEVEN 07/22/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 37 41 48 55 62 66 70 73 75 76 80 83 87 89 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 38 45 52 59 63 67 70 72 73 77 80 84 86 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 33 40 47 54 58 62 65 67 68 72 75 79 81 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 31 38 45 49 53 56 58 59 63 66 70 72 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT