* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN AL072020 07/22/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 42 49 55 62 67 69 72 74 78 83 88 92 94 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 42 49 55 62 67 69 72 74 78 83 88 92 94 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 39 45 50 56 61 65 67 70 74 76 78 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 8 11 11 9 11 5 12 9 13 7 15 10 14 5 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 -1 -1 -2 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 50 30 18 31 32 357 324 318 296 317 283 313 293 325 47 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.8 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.0 28.5 28.7 28.3 28.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 134 138 140 139 145 147 146 149 152 154 147 151 144 146 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 131 134 138 140 139 145 147 146 149 152 154 147 151 144 146 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -53.6 -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 -53.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 10 9 10 9 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 55 52 52 52 54 55 58 60 64 63 65 66 69 74 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 7 6 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 28 27 26 23 21 25 23 22 18 29 30 45 49 64 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -4 4 8 -6 0 -22 -16 -12 8 34 21 -3 45 24 59 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -5 -6 -5 -3 0 -4 -9 -10 0 4 7 8 5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1314 1228 1149 1057 972 797 651 575 465 173 178 268 178 310 419 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.1 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.8 11.3 11.7 12.3 13.0 13.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 40.8 41.8 42.9 44.0 45.1 47.8 50.4 53.1 56.6 59.7 62.6 66.3 70.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 11 12 13 13 15 16 15 17 20 21 18 17 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 25 29 37 40 31 37 33 52 42 38 35 70 30 41 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 8. 15. 20. 24. 27. 30. 33. 36. 37. 39. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 19. 25. 32. 38. 39. 42. 44. 48. 53. 58. 62. 64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.9 40.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072020 SEVEN 07/22/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.74 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.20 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 190.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.74 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.70 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 20.2% 14.5% 11.4% 9.9% 12.0% 12.9% 21.2% Logistic: 9.1% 31.0% 30.0% 17.6% 6.2% 17.6% 14.2% 22.6% Bayesian: 1.0% 7.9% 5.8% 0.2% 0.2% 2.3% 2.0% 2.1% Consensus: 5.7% 19.7% 16.8% 9.7% 5.4% 10.6% 9.7% 15.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072020 SEVEN 07/22/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072020 SEVEN 07/22/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 39 42 49 55 62 67 69 72 74 78 83 88 92 94 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 38 45 51 58 63 65 68 70 74 79 84 88 90 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 39 45 52 57 59 62 64 68 73 78 82 84 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 30 36 43 48 50 53 55 59 64 69 73 75 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT