* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL072020 07/21/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 40 49 57 63 65 68 69 75 81 85 90 91 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 40 49 57 63 65 68 69 75 81 85 90 91 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 33 39 44 49 51 51 51 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 8 8 10 10 6 8 11 11 10 9 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 -2 -1 3 0 -1 0 2 2 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 48 52 32 24 39 12 338 296 306 275 274 289 304 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.1 28.5 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.8 28.9 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 134 137 140 138 145 141 143 144 150 153 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 131 130 132 137 140 138 145 141 143 144 150 153 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 56 56 54 53 55 56 57 58 61 63 63 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 7 7 7 6 8 8 8 8 8 6 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 29 23 26 24 24 31 18 24 24 27 31 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -29 -10 -2 -4 -15 -6 -20 -6 -1 24 34 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -5 -6 -3 -1 -3 -6 -4 -3 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1358 1311 1245 1160 1082 931 794 707 652 606 365 261 319 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 11 12 11 11 14 15 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 23 24 27 35 39 30 32 30 41 55 47 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 711 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 21. 25. 29. 32. 36. 39. 40. 41. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 15. 24. 32. 38. 40. 43. 44. 50. 56. 60. 65. 66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.7 40.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072020 INVEST 07/21/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.74 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.36 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 149.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.73 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.08 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 15.8% 11.7% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 10.7% 0.0% Logistic: 4.7% 16.3% 15.5% 9.8% 3.1% 11.2% 14.3% 22.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 3.3% 2.1% 0.1% 0.1% 1.0% 0.6% 1.3% Consensus: 3.3% 11.8% 9.7% 6.4% 1.1% 4.1% 8.5% 7.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072020 INVEST 07/21/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072020 INVEST 07/21/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 32 34 40 49 57 63 65 68 69 75 81 85 90 91 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 31 37 46 54 60 62 65 66 72 78 82 87 88 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 32 41 49 55 57 60 61 67 73 77 82 83 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 32 40 46 48 51 52 58 64 68 73 74 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT