* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNAND AL072019 09/04/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 36 35 37 38 42 45 49 51 53 54 V (KT) LAND 40 35 32 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 38 32 29 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 11 8 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 5 7 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 76 83 75 76 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 28.7 28.2 28.1 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 145 138 137 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 144 128 120 119 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.1 -51.0 -51.3 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 11 13 11 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 65 65 65 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 11 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 19 3 -3 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 31 48 43 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 61 -5 -72 -142 -213 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.0 24.3 24.5 24.8 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 97.2 97.9 98.5 99.1 99.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 23 16 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 16. 18. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -5. -8. -9. -13. -15. -17. -18. -19. -20. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -5. -3. -2. 2. 5. 9. 11. 13. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 24.0 97.2 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072019 FERNAND 09/04/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.73 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.16 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.47 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.80 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.53 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 138.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 16.0% 11.0% 8.4% 5.7% 9.9% 14.3% 999.0% Logistic: 3.7% 8.8% 4.9% 1.5% 0.6% 4.3% 10.4% 999.0% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.9% 999.0% Consensus: 2.8% 8.4% 5.4% 3.3% 2.1% 4.8% 8.5% 999.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072019 FERNAND 09/04/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072019 FERNAND 09/04/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 35 32 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 40 39 36 34 32 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 12HR AGO 40 37 36 34 32 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT