* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNAND AL072019 09/04/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 47 46 44 41 42 45 47 49 51 52 53 V (KT) LAND 45 47 47 39 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 49 41 35 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 18 13 8 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 3 4 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 91 77 93 90 85 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.6 30.2 29.5 28.8 28.4 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 158 147 141 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 158 151 139 129 125 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.5 -51.3 -51.1 -51.4 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 11 13 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 67 67 67 67 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 14 10 7 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 20 16 -4 -10 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 41 27 33 16 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 3 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 123 72 20 -41 -102 -273 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.2 23.4 23.7 23.9 24.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.6 97.1 97.6 98.2 98.8 100.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 6 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 76 61 39 24 19 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -4. -6. -11. -15. -18. -20. -21. -23. -24. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -3. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 23.0 96.6 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072019 FERNAND 09/04/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 6.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.64 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.29 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.20 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.60 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.55 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.61 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 142.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 21.4% 14.4% 9.6% 9.5% 11.6% 17.1% 22.7% Logistic: 5.1% 11.6% 7.0% 3.2% 1.0% 8.2% 16.1% 24.4% Bayesian: 5.6% 6.9% 6.5% 0.9% 0.2% 4.1% 5.0% 62.4% Consensus: 5.9% 13.3% 9.3% 4.6% 3.5% 7.9% 12.7% 36.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072019 FERNAND 09/04/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072019 FERNAND 09/04/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 47 39 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 45 44 44 36 31 26 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 45 42 41 33 28 23 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 30 25 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT