* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN AL072019 09/03/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 34 37 39 40 43 45 47 49 51 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 34 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 32 32 28 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 18 12 11 13 5 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 0 6 0 -2 4 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 99 109 115 101 89 103 29 325 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.7 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.5 29.2 28.2 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 169 168 169 153 137 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 162 160 157 156 155 134 119 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.9 -51.4 -51.7 -51.7 -51.2 -51.6 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 10 12 9 8 12 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 63 63 62 67 65 65 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 14 13 10 6 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 27 17 15 22 0 -29 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 4 34 19 8 27 3 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 5 3 1 0 7 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 327 260 194 153 112 10 -110 -203 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.6 23.6 23.5 23.6 23.6 24.1 24.8 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.6 95.3 95.9 96.3 96.7 97.7 98.8 99.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 4 4 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 76 72 77 79 72 29 10 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 15. 20. 24. 27. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -10. -16. -18. -19. -21. -21. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 13. 15. 17. 19. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 23.6 94.6 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072019 SEVEN 09/03/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.59 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 75.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.50 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.36 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.90 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 89.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 21.3% 14.5% 11.3% 8.6% 11.3% 14.1% 21.2% Logistic: 7.3% 28.1% 18.2% 19.0% 13.8% 36.2% 39.9% 39.5% Bayesian: 0.5% 6.4% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.9% 1.3% 11.4% Consensus: 4.8% 18.6% 11.5% 10.2% 7.5% 16.1% 18.5% 24.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072019 SEVEN 09/03/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072019 SEVEN 09/03/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 33 34 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 32 35 28 26 25 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 31 24 22 21 21 21 21 21 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 24 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT