* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062021 08/18/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 29 30 31 30 30 29 27 23 20 18 15 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 26 29 29 29 30 32 32 31 28 25 22 20 17 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 27 29 29 30 30 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 29 29 27 26 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -2 -4 -5 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 239 242 247 241 241 259 275 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.7 27.0 24.5 24.4 19.1 18.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 148 125 102 101 77 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 126 121 103 86 85 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -54.3 -54.4 -55.4 -55.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 2 2 5 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 53 55 57 57 63 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 11 10 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -51 -43 -28 -33 -33 -7 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -4 15 10 -2 -10 10 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 16 9 3 -3 5 -4 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -433 -348 -277 -228 -229 -9 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 40.4 41.2 42.0 42.4 42.7 43.3 43.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.7 78.3 76.9 75.4 73.9 70.6 67.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 13 12 12 12 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 18 CX,CY: 9/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 13. 16. 18. 18. 18. 17. 17. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 3. 6. 9. 11. 11. 8. 2. -4. -8. -14. -19. -24. -31. -35. -36. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 10. 11. 10. 10. 9. 7. 3. 0. -2. -5. -6. -6. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 40.4 79.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062021 FRED 08/18/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.06 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 94.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.70 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.47 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.15 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.91 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 1.9% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062021 FRED 08/18/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062021 FRED 08/18/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 26 29 29 29 30 32 32 31 28 25 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 20 19 22 22 22 23 25 25 24 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 16 17 19 19 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT