* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062021 08/18/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 31 32 32 30 29 27 24 22 20 17 15 16 18 V (KT) LAND 25 28 29 29 30 30 34 32 31 29 26 24 22 19 17 17 19 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 29 29 30 30 33 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 28 30 27 25 23 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 -1 1 0 -4 -2 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 237 238 245 252 240 247 261 294 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.7 24.8 21.4 20.4 17.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 148 148 105 85 81 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 129 125 121 120 88 75 72 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -54.5 -54.9 -56.0 -55.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 6 5 2 2 4 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 55 55 56 57 60 66 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 11 12 12 11 9 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -54 -54 -47 -35 -30 -24 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 -2 20 8 25 12 20 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 16 19 12 1 -2 0 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -519 -455 -392 -288 -231 -147 90 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.9 39.9 40.8 41.5 42.1 42.8 42.7 43.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 81.5 80.2 78.9 77.5 76.0 72.7 69.5 66.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 13 13 13 12 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 4 3 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 19 CX,CY: 8/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 16. 16. 16. 16. 15. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 7. 9. 9. 6. 1. -4. -8. -14. -18. -23. -29. -32. -34. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 2. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -9. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 38.9 81.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062021 FRED 08/18/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.11 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.02 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 136.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.71 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.54 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.87 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 4.5% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 1.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 1.9% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062021 FRED 08/18/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062021 FRED 08/18/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 29 29 30 30 34 32 31 29 26 24 22 19 17 17 19 18HR AGO 25 24 25 25 26 26 30 28 27 25 22 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 22 26 24 23 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 16 20 18 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT