* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062021 08/18/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 26 29 31 30 27 26 24 21 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 25 28 29 29 30 30 31 30 28 25 23 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 25 28 29 29 30 30 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 23 30 30 31 25 22 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 3 0 -1 -4 -3 -3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 234 234 235 240 249 247 248 270 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 28.9 28.9 28.7 24.7 23.5 17.8 18.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 153 152 149 104 94 73 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 139 131 127 123 87 80 67 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.9 -55.0 -55.6 -55.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 6 5 1 4 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 55 52 52 54 59 65 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 11 12 11 10 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -64 -50 -50 -38 -40 -21 -7 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 -3 4 25 0 -11 -3 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 20 15 20 13 5 6 -4 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -529 -498 -460 -356 -305 -245 -90 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.8 39.3 40.8 41.7 42.6 43.2 43.5 43.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 82.3 81.0 79.8 78.2 76.6 73.8 71.6 69.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 16 15 13 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 4 4 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 19 CX,CY: 8/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 21. 21. 21. 21. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 6. 8. 10. 11. 8. 2. -4. -9. -15. -20. -26. -32. -37. -38. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 13. 13. 12. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 10. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -8. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 37.8 82.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062021 FRED 08/18/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.08 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 119.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.66 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.62 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.85 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 1.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062021 FRED 08/18/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062021 FRED 08/18/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 25 28 29 29 30 30 31 30 28 25 23 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 20 19 22 23 23 24 24 25 24 22 19 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 17 18 18 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT