* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062021 08/17/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 45 45 45 43 42 43 43 41 42 42 41 39 38 38 V (KT) LAND 45 37 33 30 29 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 45 37 32 30 28 28 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 24 23 24 24 26 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -5 -1 0 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 217 228 227 222 226 237 248 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 30.1 30.3 29.5 29.6 28.9 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 172 173 162 164 152 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 145 148 153 141 142 129 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.7 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.3 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 4 7 7 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 59 62 60 58 60 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 13 11 10 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -24 -27 -21 -49 -54 -51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 10 46 57 34 13 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 22 18 10 26 26 21 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -72 -177 -291 -358 -424 -490 -374 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.6 31.7 32.7 34.2 35.6 38.5 40.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 85.3 85.0 84.8 84.2 83.6 81.3 78.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 13 15 16 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 5 5 4 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 10 CX,CY: 2/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 19. 21. 23. 24. 24. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -5. -9. -12. -15. -18. -20. -24. -27. -28. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -13. -15. -17. -18. -20. -21. -21. -21. -20. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 30.6 85.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062021 FRED 08/17/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.25 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 195.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.74 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.67 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.62 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 8.8% 6.1% 5.3% 3.8% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.9% 8.4% 4.7% 2.7% 1.0% 2.7% 1.1% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 5.8% 3.6% 2.6% 1.6% 3.2% 0.4% 0.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062021 FRED 08/17/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062021 FRED 08/17/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 37 33 30 29 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 45 44 40 37 36 35 36 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 12HR AGO 45 42 41 38 37 36 37 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 33 34 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT