* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062021 08/16/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 60 60 59 56 51 51 51 50 49 48 49 50 49 49 49 V (KT) LAND 55 44 37 32 30 28 28 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 V (KT) LGEM 55 46 38 33 30 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 19 21 22 25 26 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 2 -2 -3 -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 219 225 230 230 221 233 232 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.2 30.0 29.6 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 168 170 172 171 164 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 145 145 146 149 147 141 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 5 4 7 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 63 60 63 62 61 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 15 14 12 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 -9 -31 -29 -20 -66 -55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 42 43 18 34 48 26 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 16 24 22 12 24 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 25 -73 -169 -281 -354 -485 -516 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.5 30.5 31.5 32.6 33.7 36.4 39.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 85.4 85.1 84.9 84.6 84.4 83.3 81.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 11 13 16 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 34 8 5 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 8 CX,CY: 3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -15. -17. -19. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -13. -16. -17. -19. -20. -21. -21. -21. -21. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -6. -6. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 29.5 85.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062021 FRED 08/16/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.30 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 190.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.74 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.66 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.53 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 17.3% 10.4% 8.9% 6.4% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.7% 23.1% 14.6% 9.0% 3.3% 8.3% 3.1% 1.4% Bayesian: 4.5% 1.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.5% 13.9% 8.5% 6.2% 3.2% 6.1% 1.0% 0.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062021 FRED 08/16/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062021 FRED 08/16/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 44 37 32 30 28 28 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 18HR AGO 55 54 47 42 40 38 38 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 12HR AGO 55 52 51 46 44 42 42 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 43 41 41 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT