* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062021 08/16/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 56 56 56 54 51 52 53 53 52 52 53 54 52 52 52 V (KT) LAND 50 53 44 37 32 29 27 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 V (KT) LGEM 50 53 45 37 32 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 21 19 20 21 23 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 0 1 -3 2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 226 221 224 233 226 222 232 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 30.0 29.9 30.0 30.3 29.5 29.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 168 170 172 161 160 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 147 146 144 145 150 138 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 5 4 7 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 66 65 62 64 62 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 15 13 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 10 -4 -32 -28 -39 -59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 38 33 33 44 40 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 16 24 22 10 22 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 119 26 -57 -155 -264 -399 -561 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.7 29.6 30.5 31.5 32.5 34.7 37.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 85.7 85.6 85.4 85.2 85.0 84.3 83.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 11 13 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 28 34 5 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 20. 21. 23. 23. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 9. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -11. -13. -14. -16. -17. -18. -18. -18. -18. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 6. 6. 4. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 2. 2. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 28.7 85.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062021 FRED 08/16/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.38 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 203.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.58 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 14.6% 9.1% 8.0% 5.8% 9.3% 8.8% 0.0% Logistic: 8.0% 19.0% 10.8% 6.6% 2.6% 9.7% 5.2% 2.0% Bayesian: 5.8% 2.6% 0.9% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.6% 12.0% 6.9% 5.4% 2.8% 6.3% 4.7% 0.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062021 FRED 08/16/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062021 FRED 08/16/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 53 44 37 32 29 27 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 18HR AGO 50 49 40 33 28 25 23 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 50 47 46 39 34 31 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 35 32 30 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT