* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062021 08/16/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 52 55 56 57 56 53 53 51 50 51 52 53 53 54 54 V (KT) LAND 45 49 52 55 48 34 29 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 53 56 51 35 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 18 18 21 22 20 25 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -4 -2 0 -1 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 233 240 226 217 221 228 226 241 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 30.4 30.5 30.8 30.7 30.7 29.9 29.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 171 171 171 172 169 164 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 151 154 155 161 158 158 144 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -52.9 -52.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.6 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 8 4 7 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 62 65 67 65 64 63 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 16 15 13 10 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 -4 1 11 -3 -26 -36 -58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 14 30 38 19 38 35 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 7 6 13 18 12 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 292 209 137 62 -22 -222 -447 -580 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.1 27.9 28.7 29.6 30.5 32.3 34.6 37.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 85.7 85.9 86.1 86.1 86.1 85.9 85.0 83.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 11 13 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 38 34 31 34 6 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 22. 25. 28. 30. 31. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -6. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 11. 12. 11. 8. 8. 6. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 27.1 85.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062021 FRED 08/16/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.38 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.24 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 154.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.12 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.70 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 12.8% 8.2% 7.7% 5.4% 8.6% 8.3% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 15.5% 8.2% 10.0% 4.1% 14.4% 10.4% 4.4% Bayesian: 4.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.4% 9.6% 5.5% 5.9% 3.2% 7.7% 6.2% 1.5% DTOPS: 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062021 FRED 08/16/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062021 FRED 08/16/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 49 52 55 48 34 29 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 18HR AGO 45 44 47 50 43 29 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 12HR AGO 45 42 41 44 37 23 18 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT