* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062021 08/15/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 48 51 52 52 50 51 51 51 53 55 56 56 57 57 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 48 51 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 45 48 49 40 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 17 17 17 20 20 26 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 0 -2 0 1 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 236 236 238 220 213 233 216 249 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 30.1 30.5 30.5 30.6 30.7 30.8 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 171 171 170 171 171 172 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 148 151 156 153 156 158 160 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.2 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 7 5 7 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 65 63 68 68 62 60 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 13 14 16 14 10 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 24 0 5 14 -28 -20 -50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 40 30 32 38 13 54 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 8 8 6 12 18 20 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 275 288 219 157 106 -85 -329 -511 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.3 27.1 27.9 28.6 29.3 31.1 33.3 35.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 85.1 85.6 86.2 86.3 86.4 86.3 86.1 85.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 8 10 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 43 43 42 36 31 9 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 28. 31. 35. 35. 37. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. -0. -5. -11. -12. -13. -15. -15. -16. -16. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 12. 10. 11. 11. 11. 13. 15. 16. 16. 17. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 26.3 85.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062021 FRED 08/15/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.45 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.26 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.30 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 113.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.09 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.71 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 10.5% 7.1% 6.6% 4.7% 7.9% 7.8% 8.9% Logistic: 1.8% 6.4% 2.7% 2.4% 0.8% 5.9% 10.0% 6.9% Bayesian: 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 5.8% 3.3% 3.0% 1.8% 4.6% 6.0% 5.3% DTOPS: 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062021 FRED 08/15/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062021 FRED 08/15/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 46 48 51 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 40 39 42 44 47 36 27 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 41 30 21 18 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 33 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT