* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062021 08/15/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 43 46 50 52 50 45 44 44 46 47 49 48 50 51 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 43 46 44 33 29 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 42 45 48 32 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 16 18 18 20 21 24 31 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 0 0 -3 3 -2 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 263 241 232 236 221 219 219 228 250 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 29.9 30.3 30.5 30.5 31.0 30.9 30.6 29.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 167 171 171 170 171 172 173 165 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 149 148 153 156 154 164 162 157 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -52.7 -53.4 -53.3 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.6 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 6 7 4 8 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 65 66 64 66 64 59 56 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 13 11 13 14 12 7 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 19 19 1 1 -3 -23 -39 -62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 30 47 26 33 32 20 18 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 8 6 9 9 18 12 13 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 266 277 272 206 166 0 -223 -485 -654 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.8 26.6 27.3 28.1 28.8 30.4 32.4 34.8 37.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 84.7 85.3 85.8 86.2 86.7 86.8 86.7 86.1 84.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 9 11 13 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 41 44 45 40 35 34 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 30. 34. 38. 39. 41. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. -1. -5. -9. -12. -15. -17. -20. -23. -24. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -6. -12. -13. -15. -15. -16. -16. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 15. 17. 15. 10. 9. 9. 11. 12. 14. 13. 15. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 25.8 84.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062021 FRED 08/15/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.45 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.27 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.15 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 120.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.75 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 7.7% 5.7% 5.4% 3.7% 6.9% 6.9% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 5.1% 2.2% 1.6% 0.4% 4.3% 11.3% 2.3% Bayesian: 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 4.4% 2.6% 2.3% 1.4% 3.8% 6.0% 0.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062021 FRED 08/15/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062021 FRED 08/15/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 41 43 46 44 33 29 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 18HR AGO 35 34 37 39 42 40 29 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 36 34 23 19 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 26 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT