* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062021 08/15/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 46 49 57 58 56 51 50 49 50 51 51 51 53 55 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 46 49 57 58 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 43 46 50 52 37 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 15 12 13 16 17 21 28 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 1 3 0 2 -4 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 258 270 241 232 234 211 227 222 249 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.0 30.4 30.2 30.7 30.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 171 171 169 170 171 171 171 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 154 153 153 154 148 152 147 155 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -52.9 -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 1.1 0.5 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 8 5 8 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 61 65 65 63 68 60 58 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 11 13 12 15 13 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 2 26 32 7 21 -24 -17 -61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 0 27 32 22 41 2 35 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -3 4 6 4 7 14 15 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 145 247 351 375 331 195 49 -138 -310 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.9 24.7 25.4 26.2 27.0 28.4 29.9 31.7 33.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 84.3 85.0 85.6 86.1 86.7 87.3 87.2 87.1 86.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 9 9 8 8 8 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 79 68 50 44 45 58 28 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 461 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 26. 30. 34. 37. 38. 40. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 2. -2. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 14. 22. 23. 21. 16. 15. 14. 15. 16. 16. 16. 18. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 23.9 84.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062021 FRED 08/15/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.55 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 57.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.38 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 132.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.27 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.75 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 13.6% 8.6% 7.7% 5.7% 9.1% 9.5% 11.0% Logistic: 3.2% 9.4% 5.9% 3.5% 0.7% 4.8% 6.6% 9.5% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 7.8% 4.9% 3.7% 2.1% 4.7% 5.4% 6.8% DTOPS: 2.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062021 FRED 08/15/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062021 FRED 08/15/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 41 46 49 57 58 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 37 42 45 53 54 35 27 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 12HR AGO 35 32 31 36 39 47 48 29 21 18 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 36 37 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT