* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062021 08/15/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 38 43 49 55 54 51 45 44 45 48 51 52 54 55 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 38 43 49 55 41 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 40 44 36 30 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 18 15 15 16 16 20 21 24 20 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -3 -3 0 -3 3 -3 -2 -4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 243 266 270 244 241 224 222 226 238 278 258 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 30.1 30.1 30.2 29.6 30.5 30.1 30.5 30.7 30.6 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 172 171 171 161 170 170 170 171 171 160 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 157 157 155 154 141 154 145 151 154 152 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -52.7 -53.3 -53.5 -54.1 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 6 7 5 8 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 61 65 69 68 68 67 60 56 56 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 8 8 10 12 12 13 10 7 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 0 2 24 24 7 2 -36 -39 -79 -69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 10 4 28 47 19 23 22 19 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -6 -3 5 5 8 14 11 11 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 106 220 337 396 348 209 88 -57 -217 -420 -644 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.6 24.4 25.2 26.0 26.7 28.1 29.5 31.0 32.6 34.4 36.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 84.1 84.9 85.7 86.2 86.8 87.3 87.5 87.5 87.3 86.9 86.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 10 9 8 7 8 8 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 84 85 60 46 32 78 28 19 6 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. 0. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 28. 32. 36. 40. 41. 43. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. -0. -3. -6. -8. -10. -13. -14. -15. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. -2. -8. -14. -16. -16. -17. -17. -17. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 13. 19. 25. 24. 21. 15. 14. 15. 18. 21. 22. 24. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 23.6 84.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062021 FRED 08/15/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.52 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 61.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.40 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 91.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.34 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.80 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 16.5% 10.1% 8.9% 6.7% 10.1% 9.8% 11.2% Logistic: 9.1% 29.0% 21.4% 22.4% 8.5% 26.8% 19.3% 24.5% Bayesian: 0.4% 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 5.4% 15.5% 10.7% 10.5% 5.1% 12.3% 9.7% 11.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062021 FRED 08/15/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062021 FRED 08/15/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 38 43 49 55 41 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 31 35 40 46 52 38 29 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 35 41 47 33 24 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 31 37 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT