* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062021 08/14/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 35 40 44 51 49 47 42 40 41 43 43 44 46 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 37 37 43 47 54 37 30 28 27 28 28 28 28 29 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 34 34 35 37 39 41 32 28 27 27 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 18 12 17 19 18 16 22 27 28 31 24 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -4 0 1 -3 -1 -3 -2 -6 -3 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 254 273 243 236 262 240 268 226 243 239 272 267 283 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.9 30.3 30.2 30.1 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.7 30.7 30.5 29.7 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 166 168 172 172 171 171 170 170 171 171 171 164 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 152 153 161 158 154 154 150 148 155 154 149 135 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -54.1 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 8 6 7 4 7 3 6 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 63 68 67 64 71 68 73 66 65 61 69 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 9 10 8 10 9 12 9 8 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -7 13 20 -2 23 10 18 -24 -22 -59 -37 -55 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -6 -6 26 20 4 27 43 31 14 50 16 39 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -8 -3 -7 -8 6 7 12 9 13 0 12 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -12 47 141 236 263 283 168 41 -121 -293 -505 -618 -643 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.6 24.2 25.0 25.7 27.2 28.7 30.0 31.5 33.2 35.1 36.8 38.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 81.3 82.1 83.0 83.8 84.6 85.8 86.6 87.0 87.1 86.9 86.5 85.2 83.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 9 7 7 8 9 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 77 57 46 39 42 42 34 28 6 6 6 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -0. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 28. 32. 36. 39. 41. 42. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -1. -5. -10. -13. -16. -20. -22. -23. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. -1. 1. -0. 2. -2. -5. -10. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 10. 14. 21. 19. 17. 12. 10. 11. 13. 13. 14. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 23.0 81.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062021 FRED 08/14/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.45 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 52.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.34 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 107.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.22 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.82 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 11.7% 7.7% 7.1% 5.2% 8.3% 8.1% 10.1% Logistic: 2.2% 8.5% 4.8% 4.4% 1.3% 9.6% 13.0% 21.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 6.8% 4.2% 3.8% 2.2% 6.0% 7.0% 10.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062021 FRED 08/14/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062021 FRED 08/14/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 35 37 37 43 47 54 37 30 28 27 28 28 28 28 29 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 33 39 43 50 33 26 24 23 24 24 24 24 25 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 28 34 38 45 28 21 19 18 19 19 19 19 20 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 26 30 37 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT