* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062021 08/14/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 38 42 48 51 52 49 46 43 44 47 48 50 50 V (KT) LAND 30 33 34 37 40 43 50 52 41 32 28 27 27 28 28 28 28 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 33 34 36 38 41 42 36 29 28 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 21 17 11 14 16 21 14 24 23 26 25 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -4 -3 1 -3 0 -2 0 -4 0 -1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 252 255 274 242 233 256 250 231 225 242 248 284 276 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.1 29.8 29.9 30.4 30.2 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.4 30.7 30.6 29.5 29.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 166 167 171 171 169 171 170 170 171 171 160 165 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 161 152 152 159 154 151 150 147 149 155 151 131 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -53.4 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 5 7 3 7 2 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 62 64 67 66 65 69 72 70 64 62 64 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 9 11 10 12 10 9 7 6 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 -4 -9 12 20 -8 21 -3 -1 -42 -36 -56 -49 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 -3 -5 29 24 -5 42 12 40 2 56 15 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -10 -6 -6 -2 -4 0 5 5 10 7 9 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -42 -1 46 132 215 224 190 62 -60 -241 -441 -616 -677 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.5 23.1 23.6 24.2 24.8 26.1 28.0 29.6 30.9 32.6 34.5 36.3 37.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 80.2 81.2 82.1 82.8 83.4 84.4 85.5 86.1 86.5 86.7 86.5 85.8 84.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 8 9 9 8 8 9 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 64 79 57 46 38 39 29 27 29 6 6 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 707 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -0. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 28. 32. 36. 39. 41. 42. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -1. -4. -8. -11. -15. -18. -20. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. -3. -4. -8. -11. -16. -17. -17. -17. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 18. 21. 22. 19. 16. 13. 14. 17. 18. 20. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 22.5 80.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062021 FRED 08/14/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.49 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 56.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.37 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 99.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.31 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.82 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 13.3% 8.5% 7.6% 5.6% 8.6% 8.4% 11.0% Logistic: 7.4% 23.8% 15.8% 16.6% 7.1% 26.4% 41.1% 43.4% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 4.2% 12.9% 8.3% 8.1% 4.2% 11.7% 16.5% 18.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062021 FRED 08/14/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062021 FRED 08/14/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 34 37 40 43 50 52 41 32 28 27 27 28 28 28 28 18HR AGO 30 29 30 33 36 39 46 48 37 28 24 23 23 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 35 42 44 33 24 20 19 19 20 20 20 20 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 26 33 35 24 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT