* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062021 08/13/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 35 38 46 51 53 49 48 46 51 54 55 58 59 V (KT) LAND 30 29 32 33 36 39 46 51 44 33 29 27 27 27 28 28 28 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 32 33 34 36 39 42 37 30 28 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 17 18 15 11 19 18 16 23 24 23 21 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 -5 -2 0 -1 0 -6 0 -5 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 251 254 252 266 225 251 221 260 228 249 246 304 268 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 29.9 29.7 29.9 30.5 30.2 29.8 30.1 30.2 30.7 30.7 30.6 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 168 164 167 171 171 165 171 171 170 170 171 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 163 154 149 151 162 155 144 147 146 152 151 151 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 9 9 8 8 6 6 4 8 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 67 62 64 67 61 68 67 72 63 62 62 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 7 7 8 8 10 10 9 6 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 14 -5 -11 8 -12 12 1 8 -46 -42 -65 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 21 -14 -7 17 18 32 45 34 -8 33 3 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -10 -6 -4 -1 -7 8 11 16 10 12 7 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -22 -18 22 67 137 146 165 79 -33 -178 -300 -483 -728 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.1 22.7 23.2 23.8 24.4 26.0 27.6 29.0 30.6 32.0 33.3 35.0 37.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.1 80.0 80.9 81.6 82.3 83.4 84.5 85.4 86.1 86.7 87.0 87.0 86.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 9 10 9 8 8 7 8 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 56 61 81 65 48 36 26 26 31 6 6 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. 2. 8. 14. 20. 24. 28. 32. 36. 40. 41. 43. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -3. -6. -9. -9. -12. -14. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -3. -8. -12. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 16. 21. 23. 19. 18. 16. 21. 24. 25. 28. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 22.1 79.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062021 FRED 08/13/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.51 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 62.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.41 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 106.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.30 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.83 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 12.9% 8.3% 7.4% 5.5% 8.5% 8.6% 11.7% Logistic: 5.7% 25.8% 16.5% 15.9% 8.0% 29.0% 35.7% 51.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 2.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 3.6% 13.6% 8.4% 7.8% 4.5% 12.5% 14.8% 20.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062021 FRED 08/13/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062021 FRED 08/13/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 32 33 36 39 46 51 44 33 29 27 27 27 28 28 28 18HR AGO 30 29 32 33 36 39 46 51 44 33 29 27 27 27 28 28 28 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 30 33 40 45 38 27 23 21 21 21 22 22 22 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 26 33 38 31 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT