* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062021 08/13/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 38 45 49 53 50 49 47 49 49 48 50 52 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 38 45 49 53 42 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 34 36 39 42 36 30 28 27 27 27 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 21 16 16 18 15 15 14 23 21 26 23 27 21 18 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 -2 -2 -5 0 -2 0 -2 -2 -3 -2 -1 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 271 281 268 247 259 267 229 235 234 245 249 263 271 305 330 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.6 29.8 29.8 30.2 30.5 30.9 30.4 30.3 29.9 30.1 29.5 29.6 29.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 157 162 166 165 171 171 171 171 170 166 170 159 161 160 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 142 146 150 151 150 154 159 168 153 146 137 141 131 130 127 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 -53.9 -53.6 -54.2 -53.9 -54.2 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.8 -54.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 5 6 3 7 2 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 63 63 67 67 63 64 63 67 70 70 72 71 74 71 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 6 6 7 8 7 9 9 9 6 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -20 -30 -7 3 -15 6 -21 5 -29 -36 -51 -65 -84 -73 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 9 2 22 29 4 19 10 40 10 40 12 23 8 6 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -12 -3 -5 -9 -3 0 4 4 7 11 5 10 3 18 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 62 79 77 75 98 89 34 37 63 -29 -145 -271 -363 -407 -452 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.8 22.4 22.9 23.3 24.4 25.6 27.0 28.9 30.3 31.3 32.5 34.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 75.1 76.1 77.2 78.1 79.0 80.4 81.6 82.8 83.6 84.4 84.8 84.8 84.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 9 9 8 8 10 9 7 6 7 8 7 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 43 50 49 47 59 73 47 65 48 20 10 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 28. 32. 36. 39. 40. 41. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -2. -1. -2. -2. -7. -10. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 15. 19. 23. 20. 19. 17. 19. 19. 18. 20. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.3 75.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062021 FRED 08/13/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.44 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.33 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.25 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 122.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.31 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.76 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 8.3% 5.9% 5.3% 3.8% 7.1% 8.3% 13.3% Logistic: 3.7% 15.4% 8.2% 5.9% 3.0% 12.5% 25.8% 42.2% Bayesian: 0.7% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% Consensus: 2.2% 8.3% 4.8% 3.8% 2.3% 6.6% 11.4% 18.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062021 FRED 08/13/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062021 FRED 08/13/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 34 36 38 45 49 53 42 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 34 36 43 47 51 40 30 26 25 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 32 39 43 47 36 26 22 21 21 21 21 21 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 24 31 35 39 28 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT