* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062021 08/12/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 33 35 39 41 46 45 47 45 46 43 43 44 48 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 33 35 39 41 46 45 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 30 31 33 36 38 30 28 27 27 27 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 19 19 17 18 20 16 19 16 21 21 24 23 28 23 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 1 0 -3 -2 -4 -1 -1 0 -5 -2 -5 -3 -5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 279 275 278 269 250 260 228 259 224 259 243 269 264 287 277 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.5 29.7 29.7 30.1 30.6 30.6 29.9 30.1 29.8 30.2 29.8 29.5 29.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 160 164 164 171 171 171 167 170 165 170 165 159 161 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 146 145 148 151 149 153 161 161 146 145 139 143 135 129 129 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.2 -54.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 6 6 3 6 3 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 63 63 64 68 64 67 63 70 69 74 71 74 69 66 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 5 7 6 8 8 10 9 9 7 6 3 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -1 -19 -26 -1 -20 -6 -14 5 -25 0 -38 -19 -63 -27 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 34 4 -1 19 -9 45 14 41 29 33 14 32 -3 -8 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 -9 -14 -5 -6 -9 0 -7 4 2 6 6 10 1 7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 50 53 49 47 75 119 54 72 125 21 -123 -264 -405 -422 -455 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.6 22.1 22.6 23.1 24.1 25.2 26.5 28.1 29.6 31.0 32.5 34.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 75.0 76.1 77.2 78.1 79.1 80.5 81.7 82.9 84.1 84.7 85.0 85.0 84.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 9 8 8 9 9 7 8 8 7 7 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 42 49 49 44 56 78 53 52 28 33 16 5 5 4 4 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 28. 32. 36. 39. 39. 41. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -15. -17. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. -3. -3. -7. -9. -13. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 11. 16. 15. 17. 15. 16. 13. 13. 14. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.1 75.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062021 FRED 08/12/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.44 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.32 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 123.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.30 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.76 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 14.5% 9.2% 8.3% 6.1% 9.2% 8.9% 11.6% Logistic: 2.0% 8.3% 4.5% 2.8% 0.9% 5.8% 6.4% 22.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 7.8% 4.6% 3.7% 2.3% 5.0% 5.1% 11.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062021 FRED 08/12/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062021 FRED 08/12/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 30 31 33 35 39 41 46 45 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 32 34 38 40 45 44 32 28 26 26 26 26 26 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 31 35 37 42 41 29 25 23 23 23 23 23 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 24 28 30 35 34 22 18 16 16 16 16 16 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT