* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062021 08/12/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 32 33 34 39 39 43 45 46 44 45 42 42 39 40 44 V (KT) LAND 30 30 32 33 34 39 39 43 45 46 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 31 32 34 36 37 32 28 27 27 27 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 15 17 18 18 18 16 20 16 24 19 24 27 30 30 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -1 1 0 -1 -4 2 -1 1 -3 -2 -6 -3 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 295 283 272 276 265 254 261 247 259 250 268 264 277 277 286 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.5 29.7 29.7 30.4 30.9 30.7 30.2 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.5 29.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 155 161 164 163 171 171 171 171 169 168 169 160 159 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 146 144 144 150 149 145 158 168 160 149 142 139 139 133 131 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.4 -53.8 -53.5 -54.1 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -54.4 -54.3 -54.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 7 6 4 6 3 7 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 63 65 64 65 69 66 66 67 70 69 69 73 74 74 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 6 6 8 6 8 9 10 7 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 0 0 -20 -22 4 -21 3 -13 15 -17 -15 -41 -32 -41 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 38 29 3 -2 26 12 24 0 61 17 33 6 13 -12 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 1 -12 -13 -3 -11 -4 -6 4 0 5 2 3 4 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 70 59 64 63 66 86 61 19 41 83 -63 -208 -329 -335 -440 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.8 21.3 21.7 22.3 22.8 23.6 24.6 26.2 27.5 29.0 30.5 31.9 33.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 74.1 75.1 76.1 77.2 78.3 79.8 80.8 82.0 83.1 84.0 84.7 84.9 84.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 11 12 9 7 8 9 8 8 7 7 7 10 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 36 43 50 48 47 71 69 64 56 38 16 5 5 4 4 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 732 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 28. 32. 36. 39. 40. 41. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -16. -20. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -2. -2. -1. -1. -5. -7. -12. -13. -15. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 4. 9. 9. 13. 15. 16. 14. 15. 12. 12. 9. 10. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 20.8 74.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062021 FRED 08/12/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.46 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.30 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 126.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.31 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.75 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 14.5% 9.2% 8.3% 6.1% 9.3% 9.0% 12.1% Logistic: 2.3% 9.0% 5.2% 3.0% 0.9% 4.9% 5.5% 16.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 8.1% 4.9% 3.8% 2.3% 4.8% 4.8% 9.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062021 FRED 08/12/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062021 FRED 08/12/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 32 33 34 39 39 43 45 46 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 31 32 33 38 38 42 44 45 35 29 27 26 26 26 26 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 33 33 37 39 40 30 24 22 21 21 21 21 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 26 26 30 32 33 23 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT