* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062021 08/12/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 30 30 34 37 46 48 52 52 54 54 53 47 46 45 V (KT) LAND 30 32 32 34 33 37 41 49 52 56 48 35 29 28 27 27 28 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 31 30 30 30 32 34 37 38 35 30 28 27 27 27 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 20 16 17 19 17 19 19 23 17 22 23 25 27 38 31 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -4 -3 0 -4 -2 -3 0 -2 -1 -7 0 -3 -2 -2 -6 SHEAR DIR 292 296 282 273 279 263 257 243 255 233 264 251 263 256 272 263 295 SST (C) 29.3 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.5 29.7 30.4 30.6 30.2 29.9 29.9 29.7 30.0 29.4 29.5 29.2 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 158 153 152 155 160 164 171 171 171 167 166 162 168 157 160 156 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 145 143 144 148 149 161 162 153 143 140 134 138 129 132 129 119 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -54.2 -53.9 -54.5 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 5 6 3 6 3 6 2 700-500 MB RH 58 59 61 65 65 68 64 67 64 69 67 72 69 74 70 68 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 6 7 8 6 8 8 11 12 13 11 11 9 8 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 11 -2 1 4 -13 -1 -18 -1 4 21 -5 19 -28 -2 -33 6 -23 200 MB DIV 33 28 23 15 -1 15 11 39 31 54 32 32 10 18 -12 36 -1 700-850 TADV 8 5 2 -7 -10 -4 -8 0 0 5 2 6 3 7 3 5 10 LAND (KM) 0 42 38 56 48 68 95 58 62 113 -16 -148 -271 -324 -326 -409 -409 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.6 21.2 21.7 22.2 23.1 24.3 25.6 27.2 28.7 30.0 31.3 32.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 73.0 74.1 75.3 76.3 77.4 79.2 80.8 82.1 83.2 84.1 84.7 85.0 84.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 11 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 7 9 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 33 36 44 50 45 53 75 55 45 30 33 10 5 4 4 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 28. 32. 35. 38. 39. 40. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -2. -5. -8. -9. -12. -15. -20. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -2. -1. -2. 1. 1. 2. -1. -3. -6. -7. -11. -11. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. -0. 4. 7. 16. 18. 22. 22. 24. 24. 23. 17. 16. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.9 73.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062021 FRED 08/12/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.39 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.27 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 145.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.22 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.75 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.5 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 7.7% 5.7% 5.5% 3.9% 7.0% 7.0% 9.8% Logistic: 0.6% 2.2% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 1.7% 3.6% 10.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 3.3% 2.2% 1.9% 1.3% 2.9% 3.5% 6.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062021 FRED 08/12/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062021 FRED 08/12/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 32 34 33 37 41 49 52 56 48 35 29 28 27 27 28 18HR AGO 30 29 29 31 30 34 38 46 49 53 45 32 26 25 24 24 25 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 27 31 35 43 46 50 42 29 23 22 21 21 22 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 23 27 35 38 42 34 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT