* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062021 08/11/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 36 38 41 44 47 50 55 57 60 59 57 54 52 V (KT) LAND 35 32 30 33 34 36 39 42 46 48 54 55 37 30 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 32 30 33 33 33 33 34 36 39 42 44 33 29 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 19 23 22 18 23 19 20 16 22 16 18 15 22 21 32 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -1 1 -3 0 -7 0 -5 0 -3 2 -5 0 -7 -1 -6 SHEAR DIR 296 288 286 295 282 287 272 270 248 271 238 272 243 262 257 272 260 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.4 29.1 29.1 29.4 29.9 30.2 30.5 30.1 29.8 29.8 30.1 30.2 29.8 29.5 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 159 154 154 159 168 171 171 171 165 165 170 170 165 161 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 144 152 146 146 147 154 158 161 150 144 141 141 142 138 136 131 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 9 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 5 6 3 5 2 5 700-500 MB RH 55 56 57 59 65 67 69 66 68 65 69 69 74 72 76 73 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 6 7 7 7 7 8 9 11 10 10 7 6 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 40 29 8 -2 3 -15 -16 -22 -17 -17 5 -6 16 -20 16 -7 31 200 MB DIV 13 31 22 1 14 0 9 8 30 17 20 40 26 36 31 -9 -14 700-850 TADV 9 6 8 3 4 -10 0 -11 -2 -6 5 1 6 9 9 10 2 LAND (KM) -24 -82 -24 37 6 15 30 86 105 93 127 2 -77 -191 -301 -309 -491 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.1 19.6 20.2 20.7 21.8 22.6 23.8 25.1 26.6 28.2 29.7 31.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 70.4 71.5 72.7 73.8 75.0 77.3 79.2 80.9 82.2 83.2 84.1 85.1 86.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 12 11 10 9 9 9 9 8 6 6 8 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 25 24 34 35 42 49 53 86 45 40 27 27 17 5 5 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 696 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 26. 30. 33. 36. 37. 37. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -11. -13. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -6. -6. -10. -11. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 20. 22. 25. 24. 22. 19. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.5 70.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062021 FRED 08/11/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.34 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.21 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.27 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 197.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.28 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.71 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.82 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 6.1% 4.8% 4.6% 3.1% 6.3% 6.8% 10.4% Logistic: 2.1% 9.9% 5.7% 4.1% 1.8% 5.1% 8.1% 28.6% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 1.4% 5.5% 3.5% 2.9% 1.6% 3.8% 5.0% 13.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062021 FRED 08/11/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062021 FRED 08/11/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 32 30 33 34 36 39 42 46 48 54 55 37 30 28 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 32 35 36 38 41 44 48 50 56 57 39 32 30 29 29 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 35 37 40 43 47 49 55 56 38 31 29 28 28 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 28 31 34 38 40 46 47 29 22 20 19 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT