* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062021 08/11/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 43 43 47 47 54 57 64 67 71 71 72 69 68 66 V (KT) LAND 40 35 32 30 34 37 38 44 47 55 58 62 62 43 32 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 36 32 31 34 35 37 39 43 48 52 56 57 41 31 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 18 15 21 21 17 17 16 14 18 15 18 17 17 18 22 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 -2 0 1 -3 2 -3 2 -2 2 -3 SHEAR DIR 293 299 294 285 292 275 280 267 257 238 256 237 251 239 250 243 252 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.3 29.1 29.2 29.8 29.9 30.6 30.4 29.9 29.7 29.9 29.7 29.9 29.2 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 150 151 157 154 156 166 168 171 171 167 163 166 163 167 154 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 145 144 149 146 146 154 154 164 157 145 140 139 137 140 127 130 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 -53.3 -53.7 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 5 3 3 0 700-500 MB RH 54 57 58 59 59 66 67 69 66 67 67 69 70 70 74 74 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 7 6 8 7 9 10 14 15 16 14 14 12 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 33 38 29 9 -1 16 -14 0 -18 4 -9 22 7 17 1 7 12 200 MB DIV -2 25 37 30 1 17 7 33 18 39 26 66 21 73 39 67 44 700-850 TADV 11 7 6 6 0 -4 -4 -7 -4 -1 3 5 7 9 12 17 16 LAND (KM) 38 -34 -66 -22 53 10 5 23 98 94 89 130 27 -78 -260 -320 -401 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.6 19.2 19.7 20.2 21.2 22.2 23.1 24.4 25.9 27.4 28.6 29.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 69.1 70.4 71.6 72.6 73.7 76.1 78.2 80.1 81.6 82.7 83.6 84.6 85.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 11 12 11 11 10 9 9 8 7 6 7 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 35 25 24 32 34 50 45 62 61 47 34 24 25 26 5 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 27. 30. 32. 32. 33. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -5. -3. -3. 2. 2. 3. -0. -2. -5. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 7. 7. 14. 17. 24. 27. 31. 31. 32. 29. 28. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.0 69.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062021 FRED 08/11/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.39 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.20 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.30 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 231.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.70 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.33 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.66 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.83 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 9.2% 6.4% 5.9% 4.1% 7.8% 8.6% 12.9% Logistic: 2.4% 9.5% 5.8% 3.1% 1.0% 4.0% 5.4% 14.2% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% Consensus: 2.1% 6.5% 4.2% 3.0% 1.7% 4.0% 4.7% 9.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062021 FRED 08/11/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062021 FRED 08/11/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 35 32 30 34 37 38 44 47 55 58 62 62 43 32 28 27 18HR AGO 40 39 36 34 38 41 42 48 51 59 62 66 66 47 36 32 31 12HR AGO 40 37 36 34 38 41 42 48 51 59 62 66 66 47 36 32 31 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 34 37 38 44 47 55 58 62 62 43 32 28 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT