* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062021 08/11/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 38 39 42 45 48 50 54 58 67 69 71 70 69 63 V (KT) LAND 35 36 31 29 33 36 39 42 44 48 52 61 63 42 31 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 33 31 30 33 34 35 36 38 41 45 50 54 38 30 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 23 19 17 23 17 20 18 20 17 21 17 20 18 28 29 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -5 -1 -2 -2 1 -7 -1 -4 0 -2 0 -3 2 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 279 292 298 289 284 285 282 269 268 235 253 218 257 235 257 242 259 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.7 29.1 29.1 29.5 29.8 30.5 30.7 30.5 30.0 30.2 29.7 29.8 29.6 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 148 148 154 154 160 166 171 171 171 169 170 162 164 161 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 148 143 141 146 144 148 152 163 166 157 145 145 135 136 133 127 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 5 6 3 4 1 700-500 MB RH 52 55 58 59 60 65 66 69 66 68 65 71 69 74 71 75 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 11 15 15 15 14 14 11 850 MB ENV VOR 27 25 29 21 -1 -6 -16 -14 -15 -14 -4 9 -10 8 -25 1 -15 200 MB DIV 12 -1 15 31 20 16 4 6 15 24 26 40 53 51 15 47 17 700-850 TADV 8 12 9 8 2 2 -13 -2 -13 0 -4 8 7 7 8 7 0 LAND (KM) 54 0 -62 -22 33 50 54 75 116 88 90 150 14 -94 -219 -333 -385 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.4 19.0 19.6 20.2 21.1 22.1 23.0 24.1 25.5 27.0 28.4 29.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 67.6 69.0 70.3 71.5 72.6 75.0 77.1 79.0 80.9 82.4 83.4 84.3 85.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 12 12 12 11 10 9 10 8 7 6 6 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 54 34 22 21 29 43 41 48 79 50 39 26 29 27 4 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 699 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 26. 30. 34. 37. 37. 38. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 19. 23. 32. 34. 36. 35. 34. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.7 67.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062021 FRED 08/11/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.38 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.21 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.28 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 209.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.72 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.70 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 39.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.61 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 9.5% 6.4% 5.5% 3.8% 7.2% 8.4% 12.5% Logistic: 6.0% 22.2% 15.2% 7.0% 2.9% 8.7% 8.3% 25.4% Bayesian: 0.8% 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% Consensus: 3.4% 11.1% 7.4% 4.2% 2.2% 5.4% 5.6% 12.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062021 FRED 08/11/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062021 FRED 08/11/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 31 29 33 36 39 42 44 48 52 61 63 42 31 28 27 18HR AGO 35 34 29 27 31 34 37 40 42 46 50 59 61 40 29 26 25 12HR AGO 35 32 31 29 33 36 39 42 44 48 52 61 63 42 31 28 27 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 32 35 38 40 44 48 57 59 38 27 24 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT