* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX AL062021 08/11/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 40 42 42 47 46 51 49 55 60 66 67 69 68 67 V (KT) LAND 35 37 34 32 31 35 39 39 43 41 47 52 58 44 33 29 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 34 33 31 35 36 36 37 39 42 46 50 41 32 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 17 21 18 16 23 16 22 22 19 20 15 19 12 15 10 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -5 -3 -1 -1 0 -4 -1 -4 0 -2 1 -3 2 -5 1 SHEAR DIR 281 282 293 296 280 291 266 272 249 252 242 242 233 257 240 242 255 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.6 29.2 29.1 30.0 29.9 30.8 30.7 30.1 30.4 30.1 29.8 29.9 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 150 147 146 156 154 170 168 171 171 171 170 169 164 167 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 148 145 141 139 146 142 157 152 169 165 148 149 139 135 139 133 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -53.5 -53.9 -53.6 -53.9 -53.4 -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 9 9 8 9 9 9 8 7 6 4 5 2 3 700-500 MB RH 51 52 54 59 61 60 67 66 70 68 69 68 70 72 73 74 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 9 8 6 8 6 8 7 10 12 14 13 13 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 33 19 20 26 24 -20 0 -22 -2 -32 8 0 30 1 15 -9 -13 200 MB DIV 46 16 -1 26 32 0 27 8 21 18 48 19 75 52 74 29 44 700-850 TADV 5 7 11 9 6 -1 -9 -6 -10 -4 -2 6 5 8 7 9 16 LAND (KM) 67 26 -25 -33 0 115 82 78 115 25 87 113 61 -48 -115 -251 -388 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 18.0 18.6 19.2 19.8 21.0 21.8 22.8 23.8 25.0 26.4 27.9 29.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 66.1 67.5 68.8 70.1 71.4 73.6 75.8 77.9 79.6 81.3 83.0 84.0 84.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 14 13 11 11 10 10 10 10 8 6 4 5 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 67 51 35 21 20 37 48 49 54 57 47 29 37 18 10 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 26. 30. 34. 37. 37. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -0. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -8. -6. -9. -5. -4. -2. -4. -4. -8. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 12. 11. 16. 14. 20. 25. 31. 32. 34. 33. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.4 66.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062021 SIX 08/11/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.50 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.26 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 219.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.71 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.69 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 47.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.53 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 12.9% 8.2% 7.2% 5.1% 8.3% 9.2% 12.1% Logistic: 5.1% 22.4% 17.7% 7.8% 2.2% 5.9% 6.6% 17.3% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.9% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% Consensus: 3.6% 12.1% 8.9% 5.0% 2.5% 4.8% 5.3% 9.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062021 SIX 08/11/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062021 SIX 08/11/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 34 32 31 35 39 39 43 41 47 52 58 44 33 29 27 18HR AGO 35 34 31 29 28 32 36 36 40 38 44 49 55 41 30 26 24 12HR AGO 35 32 31 29 28 32 36 36 40 38 44 49 55 41 30 26 24 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 28 32 32 36 34 40 45 51 37 26 22 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT