* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX AL062021 08/10/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 34 36 38 43 45 47 47 53 57 65 69 70 70 71 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 30 29 32 36 39 41 41 46 51 58 62 53 37 30 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 29 28 31 32 33 34 35 38 41 44 47 42 33 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 12 18 22 20 19 17 24 22 23 19 17 14 14 8 11 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -3 -3 -4 -1 -4 0 -7 0 -2 6 -1 0 -5 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 300 275 282 290 297 294 283 276 265 257 231 247 209 259 212 263 244 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.8 28.7 29.3 29.1 29.6 29.8 30.6 30.5 30.2 29.9 30.1 30.1 29.8 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 153 150 148 158 154 162 166 171 171 170 166 169 170 165 171 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 152 151 145 142 151 143 151 154 166 159 150 141 142 142 140 146 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.3 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 10 10 9 9 8 9 9 9 7 7 5 6 4 5 700-500 MB RH 52 51 54 55 59 62 63 65 68 65 68 66 71 67 71 68 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 9 8 6 7 6 7 7 10 12 13 13 12 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 38 41 33 26 29 6 -7 -13 -11 -21 -14 -1 6 -18 1 -24 6 200 MB DIV 29 41 14 21 29 18 8 -1 8 18 42 36 48 28 37 20 49 700-850 TADV 5 4 4 16 15 -5 -1 -14 -2 -8 0 -2 6 1 4 2 9 LAND (KM) 194 83 64 -6 -70 22 38 58 59 104 125 144 164 81 -16 -136 -367 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.0 20.1 21.2 22.2 23.2 24.3 25.6 26.8 28.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 64.8 66.3 67.8 69.1 70.4 72.9 75.3 77.2 79.5 81.5 82.9 83.9 84.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 15 13 13 13 11 11 11 10 8 7 6 5 6 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 60 69 50 33 22 32 45 42 51 66 40 32 24 25 28 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 17 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 726 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 28. 32. 36. 40. 41. 42. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -6. -5. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 13. 15. 17. 17. 23. 27. 35. 39. 40. 40. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.6 64.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062021 SIX 08/10/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.51 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.31 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 191.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.74 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.76 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 52.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.48 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 13.8% 8.7% 7.6% 5.5% 8.7% 8.7% 10.9% Logistic: 8.0% 17.8% 14.2% 7.2% 2.0% 8.3% 8.5% 14.0% Bayesian: 1.9% 2.8% 3.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% Consensus: 5.2% 11.5% 8.9% 5.0% 2.6% 5.9% 5.8% 8.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062021 SIX 08/10/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062021 SIX 08/10/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 33 30 29 32 36 39 41 41 46 51 58 62 53 37 30 18HR AGO 30 29 30 27 26 29 33 36 38 38 43 48 55 59 50 34 27 12HR AGO 30 27 26 23 22 25 29 32 34 34 39 44 51 55 46 30 23 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 22 26 29 31 31 36 41 48 52 43 27 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT