* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX AL062021 08/10/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 38 41 43 49 51 56 54 57 56 61 66 72 74 78 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 38 41 38 38 41 45 43 46 45 51 55 61 53 36 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 39 37 36 38 40 43 45 47 50 54 58 53 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 5 8 8 8 18 14 15 14 21 21 20 22 16 22 12 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -3 -3 -2 -4 -1 -2 -2 -2 -3 0 -1 3 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 286 275 289 299 271 288 274 294 246 269 252 255 242 262 241 272 262 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.9 29.8 30.6 30.3 30.4 29.4 29.7 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 144 147 148 150 152 149 150 152 155 168 165 171 171 170 158 164 166 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 147 148 149 150 146 142 143 143 154 149 164 155 155 139 143 142 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.9 -53.3 -53.9 -53.3 -53.8 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 5 6 700-500 MB RH 53 52 52 54 55 58 63 63 68 67 71 69 70 68 68 69 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 9 9 7 7 5 6 5 6 5 7 9 13 13 17 850 MB ENV VOR 45 36 28 32 40 31 25 -11 1 -18 -3 -25 7 -16 -2 -23 14 200 MB DIV 23 42 19 24 21 11 23 9 23 5 26 21 26 28 47 38 67 700-850 TADV 2 10 11 6 6 10 0 -5 -8 -8 -9 -7 -6 -4 2 5 5 LAND (KM) 444 526 335 173 56 -27 28 70 58 35 66 111 163 173 153 -25 -261 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.5 16.3 16.9 17.5 18.7 20.0 20.8 21.7 22.5 23.4 24.2 25.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 60.1 61.7 63.3 64.7 66.2 69.0 71.9 74.1 76.3 78.2 79.8 81.4 83.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 16 15 15 15 13 11 10 9 8 9 8 8 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 31 27 31 56 64 30 23 38 47 43 50 69 36 35 22 30 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 31. 36. 39. 41. 42. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -7. -11. -10. -12. -10. -7. -3. -3. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 19. 21. 26. 24. 27. 26. 31. 36. 42. 44. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.7 60.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062021 SIX 08/10/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.85 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.28 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 198.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.27 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.76 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 70.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.29 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 15.5% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 11.7% 13.0% 5.8% 0.6% 4.5% 4.8% 11.2% Bayesian: 2.5% 18.6% 5.1% 0.1% 0.1% 2.9% 4.5% 0.7% Consensus: 3.8% 15.3% 9.3% 2.0% 0.2% 5.7% 3.1% 4.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062021 SIX 08/10/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062021 SIX 08/10/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 38 41 38 38 41 45 43 46 45 51 55 61 53 36 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 37 34 34 37 41 39 42 41 47 51 57 49 32 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 28 28 31 35 33 36 35 41 45 51 43 26 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 20 20 23 27 25 28 27 33 37 43 35 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT