* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942021 08/09/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 35 42 48 52 54 57 57 61 62 69 73 81 84 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 35 42 48 35 34 32 30 32 34 41 45 53 56 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 33 36 30 30 29 28 28 32 35 39 44 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 4 6 10 8 16 15 16 14 19 20 20 17 8 14 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -3 -4 -2 1 -1 -1 -4 2 -1 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 326 340 350 332 331 301 296 290 296 253 267 253 254 227 266 233 248 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.6 29.0 28.9 29.4 29.2 29.6 30.3 30.5 30.6 30.4 30.3 30.1 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 142 144 144 147 148 154 152 160 156 163 171 171 170 169 169 170 167 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 143 144 147 148 154 149 156 149 152 162 163 161 152 151 148 144 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.1 -53.6 -53.2 -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 54 55 57 59 59 57 57 63 63 64 64 69 68 68 65 65 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 10 9 9 7 6 5 6 5 6 5 8 10 13 15 850 MB ENV VOR 47 46 43 40 39 38 33 30 5 16 -4 14 -12 22 -3 24 -1 200 MB DIV 46 27 27 38 20 12 13 11 7 38 -4 23 20 37 13 39 24 700-850 TADV 5 1 0 7 11 3 8 2 4 -5 -1 -8 0 -3 0 -1 2 LAND (KM) 454 413 423 482 401 94 33 -58 -13 -9 0 0 81 182 239 248 248 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 15 17 16 14 14 13 11 10 9 7 5 5 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 40 36 31 29 30 71 32 33 43 47 54 82 60 41 39 43 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 20. 25. 29. 34. 39. 44. 46. 47. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -6. -8. -8. -10. -9. -12. -8. -7. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 17. 23. 27. 29. 32. 32. 36. 37. 44. 48. 56. 59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.3 57.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942021 INVEST 08/09/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.83 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.22 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 139.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.35 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.78 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 77.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.22 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 13.9% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.5% 13.2% 19.4% 14.1% 1.3% 5.4% 4.1% 4.1% Bayesian: 2.0% 0.9% 5.1% 0.3% 0.2% 4.6% 6.6% 0.3% Consensus: 4.6% 9.3% 11.1% 4.8% 0.5% 3.3% 3.6% 1.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942021 INVEST 08/09/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942021 INVEST 08/09/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 33 35 42 48 35 34 32 30 32 34 41 45 53 56 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 32 39 45 32 31 29 27 29 31 38 42 50 53 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 33 39 26 25 23 21 23 25 32 36 44 47 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 24 30 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT