* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942021 08/09/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 39 45 50 52 54 54 57 58 62 62 68 70 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 39 45 39 38 40 40 39 40 43 44 40 32 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 28 29 32 35 32 33 35 36 35 38 40 42 37 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 9 7 5 6 11 12 17 20 14 19 17 26 23 20 13 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 0 0 -2 -5 -4 -4 -4 -1 -5 -1 -6 0 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 320 322 336 339 330 331 300 295 285 285 279 267 261 245 273 247 274 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.7 29.0 28.6 29.0 29.0 29.5 30.1 30.4 30.7 30.6 30.6 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 146 149 149 149 154 147 152 152 160 172 171 169 170 172 166 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 144 146 149 149 149 152 143 144 141 148 160 161 159 159 166 148 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 6 700-500 MB RH 57 54 55 57 59 58 59 62 63 67 67 69 65 68 66 69 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 8 9 9 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 44 44 42 43 38 30 29 25 4 -9 -18 -17 -19 -14 -20 -7 0 200 MB DIV 39 42 36 27 40 13 12 13 9 18 2 12 28 25 10 34 24 700-850 TADV 3 4 1 0 4 9 5 6 0 -1 -6 -1 -5 -2 -5 0 -2 LAND (KM) 567 486 441 439 504 201 54 -56 33 35 1 22 94 118 79 -7 -83 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 15 16 16 16 15 15 11 10 10 11 9 5 7 12 15 HEAT CONTENT 49 45 41 34 29 56 52 21 30 39 43 51 75 44 50 59 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -0. 2. 8. 15. 20. 25. 29. 34. 38. 43. 45. 47. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. -6. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -9. -12. -12. -13. -12. -12. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 20. 25. 27. 29. 29. 32. 33. 37. 37. 43. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.8 56.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942021 INVEST 08/09/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.86 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.26 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 137.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.79 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 75.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.25 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 14.2% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 5.7% 7.2% 2.1% 0.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.7% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.4% 2.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% 1.9% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 6.8% 6.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.6% 1.0% 0.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942021 INVEST 08/09/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942021 INVEST 08/09/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 33 39 45 39 38 40 40 39 40 43 44 40 32 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 37 43 37 36 38 38 37 38 41 42 38 30 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 32 38 32 31 33 33 32 33 36 37 33 25 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 30 24 23 25 25 24 25 28 29 25 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT