* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942021 08/09/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 40 48 53 58 57 60 63 68 72 74 78 80 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 40 48 53 43 44 35 31 29 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 33 37 40 35 38 32 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 6 8 9 8 14 8 18 14 18 11 17 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 -1 0 0 -2 -4 -7 -3 -1 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 320 316 318 336 358 335 312 308 279 302 264 279 249 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.7 29.0 28.7 29.4 29.2 29.5 30.0 30.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 144 144 147 148 149 153 149 160 155 160 170 172 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 147 144 144 147 148 149 153 147 157 146 149 160 164 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 55 54 56 58 60 62 62 65 64 68 67 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 9 8 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 48 46 45 41 35 32 31 36 11 9 -8 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 34 38 41 36 21 25 29 34 2 14 13 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 4 6 4 0 12 5 3 2 4 -6 -4 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 672 564 476 418 409 400 145 68 -39 20 -31 -46 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 14 16 15 15 14 10 10 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 50 47 44 39 33 32 81 44 33 39 46 52 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. 3. 8. 15. 20. 25. 29. 34. 39. 43. 45. 47. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -10. -10. -12. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 15. 23. 28. 33. 32. 35. 38. 43. 47. 49. 53. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.6 55.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942021 INVEST 08/09/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.84 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.28 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 134.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.78 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 79.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.21 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 15.2% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 6.4% 9.3% 3.5% 0.2% 1.5% 1.1% 0.9% Bayesian: 1.4% 31.7% 8.8% 0.4% 0.4% 3.2% 6.6% 0.3% Consensus: 3.7% 17.7% 9.1% 1.3% 0.2% 1.6% 2.6% 0.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942021 INVEST 08/09/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942021 INVEST 08/09/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 31 34 40 48 53 43 44 35 31 29 28 27 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 32 38 46 51 41 42 33 29 27 26 25 25 25 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 33 41 46 36 37 28 24 22 21 20 20 20 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 32 37 27 28 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT