* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942021 08/08/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 37 46 50 54 55 55 56 59 59 61 63 68 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 37 46 50 54 55 55 56 59 59 61 63 68 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 33 36 37 39 41 42 43 44 45 47 49 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 2 6 9 10 13 15 16 11 21 16 22 17 24 16 19 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 0 0 0 -3 -3 0 0 -4 0 -5 -1 -2 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 19 327 325 326 331 324 320 307 297 278 276 278 265 276 227 236 198 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 29.0 28.4 28.7 29.0 29.3 29.7 29.9 29.9 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 143 140 144 146 145 147 153 142 146 152 157 164 167 167 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 139 140 139 142 145 142 142 146 131 133 138 142 148 146 146 123 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 9 8 9 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 54 54 55 53 53 57 57 59 61 63 66 66 70 68 69 67 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 8 7 9 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 7 850 MB ENV VOR 36 40 44 41 37 26 3 -2 -1 -19 -27 -41 -37 -52 -43 -36 -19 200 MB DIV 3 4 5 18 27 35 33 18 45 7 10 6 20 7 16 -1 39 700-850 TADV 1 0 2 4 3 4 6 1 5 -4 -1 -15 -2 -9 0 -2 2 LAND (KM) 826 783 693 619 569 575 329 70 184 177 256 245 238 220 162 40 10 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.4 13.6 14.1 14.7 15.9 17.5 18.8 20.3 21.3 22.1 22.5 23.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 53.3 54.3 55.3 56.4 57.6 60.1 62.7 65.3 67.8 69.9 71.7 73.6 75.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 12 13 15 14 14 13 10 9 10 9 10 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 46 48 52 45 49 36 33 50 41 26 31 37 40 61 65 51 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 9. 15. 20. 25. 29. 32. 36. 40. 41. 43. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -13. -13. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 21. 25. 29. 30. 30. 31. 34. 34. 36. 38. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.1 53.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942021 INVEST 08/08/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.85 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.32 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 140.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.74 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 44.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.55 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 14.9% 9.4% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 10.5% 0.0% Logistic: 5.8% 9.7% 13.1% 4.6% 0.4% 3.3% 1.7% 2.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.8% 7.1% 0.2% 0.2% 3.5% 2.3% 1.3% Consensus: 3.9% 8.4% 9.8% 4.2% 0.2% 2.3% 4.9% 1.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942021 INVEST 08/08/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942021 INVEST 08/08/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 32 37 46 50 54 55 55 56 59 59 61 63 68 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 35 44 48 52 53 53 54 57 57 59 61 66 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 30 39 43 47 48 48 49 52 52 54 56 61 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 31 35 39 40 40 41 44 44 46 48 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT