* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942021 08/08/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 40 48 55 60 61 61 65 64 65 63 65 66 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 40 48 55 56 58 58 61 61 62 60 62 63 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 28 29 33 37 40 38 45 48 50 51 50 50 50 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 3 6 10 9 16 13 15 15 25 20 23 27 19 25 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 -1 0 -1 -1 -7 -3 0 -3 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 355 12 2 339 342 354 344 329 311 271 294 268 283 255 266 238 273 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.9 28.7 28.5 29.0 29.1 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 149 145 144 143 147 147 148 151 148 144 151 153 163 161 160 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 148 144 143 142 146 146 145 147 140 134 138 139 147 142 138 139 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -54.1 -53.9 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 59 58 59 60 59 60 61 62 62 62 62 68 69 72 70 70 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 6 7 6 6 5 6 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 30 34 42 38 40 19 13 15 3 -33 -22 -41 -26 -51 -7 -17 200 MB DIV 3 7 25 26 31 52 31 32 18 20 3 13 18 15 23 29 18 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 2 3 0 5 0 7 -6 2 -5 -3 -7 -2 -1 2 LAND (KM) 699 707 654 580 504 430 514 200 0 68 133 222 202 229 264 175 124 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.1 12.3 12.6 13.1 14.3 15.7 17.2 18.5 19.9 21.0 21.9 22.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 52.9 54.0 55.0 56.0 57.0 59.3 61.7 64.2 66.7 69.1 71.2 73.1 74.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 11 12 13 14 14 14 12 11 9 9 8 7 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 54 53 50 50 46 38 27 43 49 28 21 34 37 52 67 69 60 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 3. 8. 15. 20. 25. 29. 33. 37. 41. 42. 43. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 2. 0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 23. 30. 35. 36. 36. 40. 39. 40. 38. 40. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.9 52.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942021 INVEST 08/08/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.82 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 50.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.33 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 112.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.78 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 44.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.55 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 14.5% 9.0% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 10.9% 0.0% Logistic: 5.3% 10.9% 11.5% 3.4% 0.4% 2.6% 1.7% 2.2% Bayesian: 0.8% 9.0% 3.0% 0.2% 0.2% 2.7% 2.0% 5.4% Consensus: 3.5% 11.5% 7.9% 3.6% 0.2% 1.8% 4.9% 2.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942021 INVEST 08/08/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942021 INVEST 08/08/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 33 40 48 55 56 58 58 61 61 62 60 62 63 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 38 46 53 54 56 56 59 59 60 58 60 61 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 33 41 48 49 51 51 54 54 55 53 55 56 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 25 33 40 41 43 43 46 46 47 45 47 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT