* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942021 06/15/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 25 28 32 36 40 42 44 47 47 48 50 52 57 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 24 25 28 32 36 40 42 44 47 47 48 50 52 57 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 25 26 27 28 30 31 32 30 28 26 26 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 19 16 9 6 8 11 12 8 10 22 23 26 21 25 17 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 0 5 6 0 0 0 0 2 1 -3 0 -1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 97 100 110 128 159 307 303 323 297 247 242 232 247 251 257 270 276 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.8 28.0 27.8 26.9 26.1 26.0 25.2 25.5 25.9 26.5 26.5 27.2 27.5 27.7 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 136 133 136 138 136 125 118 117 110 112 115 120 120 128 131 133 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 133 136 138 136 125 118 117 110 110 111 115 115 122 126 125 123 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.1 -54.0 -54.3 -54.7 -54.8 -54.8 -54.8 -55.0 -54.9 -55.3 -55.4 -55.4 -55.3 -55.1 -54.9 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.3 -0.6 -0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 74 71 70 70 73 69 70 69 71 68 63 59 57 55 55 53 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 63 66 64 62 41 19 -7 -23 -34 -54 -66 -73 -78 -76 -83 -82 200 MB DIV 24 -53 -74 -65 -34 -7 9 14 11 30 -3 -32 -2 19 -3 -11 -1 700-850 TADV 1 -1 0 -1 -1 -3 0 -2 2 1 5 10 10 6 5 0 -2 LAND (KM) 969 1109 1256 1392 1542 1551 1528 1456 1294 1214 1197 1056 907 707 428 245 244 LAT (DEG N) 7.9 8.0 8.1 8.3 8.5 9.4 10.5 11.9 13.4 14.9 16.0 16.9 17.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 24.5 26.0 27.5 28.9 30.4 33.4 36.9 40.6 44.3 47.8 50.8 53.5 56.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 14 15 17 19 20 19 17 15 13 14 13 14 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 18 23 19 7 2 0 0 0 0 12 4 15 25 22 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 19. 23. 26. 28. 30. 31. 32. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 7. 11. 15. 17. 19. 22. 22. 23. 25. 27. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 7.9 24.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942021 INVEST 06/15/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 86.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.70 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -40.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 9.5% 6.1% 3.1% 2.4% 5.6% 5.2% 9.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 3.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.9% 4.5% 2.2% 1.1% 0.8% 2.0% 1.7% 3.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942021 INVEST 06/15/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 24 24 25 28 32 36 40 42 44 47 47 48 50 52 57 18HR AGO 25 24 23 23 24 27 31 35 39 41 43 46 46 47 49 51 56 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 25 29 33 37 39 41 44 44 45 47 49 54 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 19 23 27 31 33 35 38 38 39 41 43 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT