* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942021 06/15/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 30 34 40 44 50 55 61 66 68 69 71 74 77 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 30 34 40 44 50 55 61 66 68 69 71 74 77 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 29 30 32 35 39 44 51 57 60 58 56 54 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 18 17 12 10 4 13 14 11 7 4 10 17 20 19 20 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 2 7 5 4 -2 0 0 -2 0 0 -1 0 4 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 116 113 117 139 154 330 13 24 28 12 223 234 222 251 246 251 254 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.7 28.1 28.3 27.9 27.2 26.9 26.3 26.2 25.9 26.4 26.6 27.0 27.7 27.9 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 137 134 135 140 142 137 128 126 119 118 115 119 121 126 135 138 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 134 135 140 142 137 128 126 119 118 113 118 119 125 135 138 133 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.9 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 -54.8 -54.7 -54.8 -54.9 -55.2 -55.0 -55.3 -55.2 -55.2 -55.2 -55.2 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 4 5 5 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 75 72 69 68 67 68 67 66 67 63 63 59 57 57 54 55 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 67 62 67 69 76 63 46 15 -18 -33 -30 -39 -40 -42 -22 -19 -14 200 MB DIV 113 31 -58 -83 -59 -4 10 24 11 -3 2 -3 -6 -10 4 -8 4 700-850 TADV 2 -1 -4 -1 0 -4 -3 -3 0 0 2 0 1 0 -3 -5 -4 LAND (KM) 900 1080 1244 1399 1529 1427 1344 1359 1300 1129 1043 976 897 629 485 400 189 LAT (DEG N) 8.1 8.0 7.9 7.6 7.5 7.6 8.2 9.2 10.6 11.9 13.2 13.9 14.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 23.9 25.7 27.3 28.7 30.1 32.6 35.2 38.2 41.4 44.8 47.9 50.8 53.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 17 15 14 13 13 14 17 18 17 15 14 14 15 16 17 18 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 17 25 27 25 12 22 1 12 0 16 17 17 48 23 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 466 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 30. 32. 34. 34. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 9. 15. 19. 25. 30. 36. 41. 43. 44. 46. 49. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.1 23.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942021 INVEST 06/15/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.55 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 97.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.71 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.09 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 13.7% 8.9% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.2% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 8.9% 6.0% 3.3% 1.6% 4.6% 3.3% 5.4% Bayesian: 0.5% 7.1% 2.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% Consensus: 2.9% 9.9% 5.9% 3.8% 0.6% 1.8% 4.3% 1.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942021 INVEST 06/15/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 28 29 30 34 40 44 50 55 61 66 68 69 71 74 77 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 31 37 41 47 52 58 63 65 66 68 71 74 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 27 33 37 43 48 54 59 61 62 64 67 70 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 20 26 30 36 41 47 52 54 55 57 60 63 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT