* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942021 06/14/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 35 37 43 49 58 63 67 70 75 77 79 81 84 86 V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 35 37 43 49 58 63 67 70 75 77 79 81 84 86 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 32 35 39 43 49 54 59 63 67 68 65 65 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 19 16 11 2 9 12 13 12 8 9 13 17 8 16 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -6 -1 2 7 0 -1 0 -3 -4 0 -4 -1 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 118 102 100 103 108 64 355 34 22 29 65 169 185 236 271 265 285 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.7 28.1 28.3 27.9 27.1 26.6 26.2 25.7 25.9 26.1 26.5 27.1 27.5 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 134 134 139 141 136 127 122 118 113 114 116 121 128 133 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 137 134 134 139 141 136 127 122 118 112 112 114 120 128 133 136 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.8 -55.0 -54.2 -53.9 -54.6 -54.5 -54.6 -54.5 -55.0 -54.9 -55.2 -55.3 -55.3 -55.2 -55.2 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 5 5 5 4 5 5 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 80 75 72 70 69 70 65 65 64 63 62 57 54 53 50 50 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 10 9 7 6 5 4 3 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 67 62 72 69 71 52 29 -14 -37 -40 -32 -30 -24 -6 -6 29 200 MB DIV 170 146 42 -54 -71 -25 29 34 36 15 -12 -17 0 -1 3 2 3 700-850 TADV 5 3 1 -1 -2 -4 -6 -1 -3 0 3 -1 0 -1 0 0 -2 LAND (KM) 736 921 1085 1223 1367 1471 1412 1374 1439 1375 1227 1118 1000 880 635 340 300 LAT (DEG N) 8.0 7.9 7.7 7.5 7.2 7.1 7.5 8.5 9.9 11.2 12.4 13.3 13.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 22.0 24.0 25.6 26.9 28.2 30.5 32.7 35.2 38.0 41.0 44.0 46.8 49.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 21 18 14 13 13 11 12 15 16 16 15 14 14 15 16 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 10 11 12 16 23 27 25 10 16 0 2 3 1 20 16 39 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 23 CX,CY: -22/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 408 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 30. 32. 33. 34. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -0. -3. -4. -8. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 12. 18. 24. 33. 38. 42. 45. 50. 52. 54. 56. 59. 61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.0 22.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942021 INVEST 06/14/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.50 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 87.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.57 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.70 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 13.5% 8.7% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 9.9% 0.0% Logistic: 7.2% 29.6% 16.3% 6.8% 5.4% 10.0% 12.6% 12.4% Bayesian: 2.7% 21.7% 2.6% 0.4% 0.7% 6.5% 14.8% 0.4% Consensus: 4.6% 21.6% 9.2% 4.8% 2.0% 5.5% 12.5% 4.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942021 INVEST 06/14/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 29 32 35 37 43 49 58 63 67 70 75 77 79 81 84 86 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 32 38 44 53 58 62 65 70 72 74 76 79 81 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 32 38 47 52 56 59 64 66 68 70 73 75 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 29 38 43 47 50 55 57 59 61 64 66 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT