* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAY AL062020 07/10/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 44 45 46 45 47 48 47 46 44 41 37 34 33 33 33 V (KT) LAND 40 43 44 45 46 32 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 46 48 48 33 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 13 9 10 6 10 21 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 0 -1 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 277 298 279 277 289 187 212 228 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 25.5 24.7 24.5 24.6 19.9 20.4 10.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 109 103 101 103 82 84 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 104 92 87 86 88 75 76 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -51.9 -51.6 -51.6 -50.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.0 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 5 6 8 7 3 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 63 63 64 66 71 72 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 13 14 13 12 12 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 -4 -6 22 55 74 125 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 24 10 43 47 18 72 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 -3 10 16 14 16 28 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 85 116 85 58 16 -186 -322 -155 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.9 36.8 37.7 38.8 39.8 43.0 47.0 50.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 74.8 74.6 74.5 74.3 74.0 73.1 71.5 69.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 11 13 19 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -2. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 1. -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 35.9 74.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062020 FAY 07/10/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.69 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.20 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 152.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.21 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 14.5% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 1.9% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 5.5% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062020 FAY 07/10/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062020 FAY 07/10/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 44 45 46 32 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 40 39 40 41 42 28 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 38 24 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 17 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT