* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX AL062019 08/28/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 38 40 42 41 38 37 36 34 32 28 V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 38 40 42 41 37 36 34 32 30 26 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 39 40 41 39 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 19 19 10 7 19 36 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -3 -1 0 3 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 341 334 333 333 252 204 199 217 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.4 25.6 16.4 18.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 139 136 133 131 114 75 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 118 118 116 114 114 101 72 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.5 0.5 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 7 7 3 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 58 58 62 59 51 46 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 11 11 11 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -9 10 13 5 9 -29 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 1 -2 37 40 35 47 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 5 -4 -6 2 -5 8 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 557 476 398 361 363 302 61 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.5 32.4 33.3 34.7 36.0 39.2 43.0 47.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 72.0 72.2 72.4 72.1 71.8 69.0 65.2 61.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 9 11 14 16 22 25 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 20 19 20 39 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. -1. -6. -10. -14. -17. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 31.5 72.0 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062019 SIX 08/28/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.57 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.12 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.16 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.48 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.81 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 177.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 10.9% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 7.5% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 4.3% 2.6% 1.5% 0.3% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 5.0% 3.6% 0.5% 0.1% 3.1% 2.6% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062019 SIX 08/28/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062019 SIX 08/28/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 38 38 40 42 41 37 36 34 32 30 26 18HR AGO 35 34 35 35 37 39 38 34 33 31 29 27 23 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 33 35 34 30 29 27 25 23 19 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 29 28 24 23 21 19 17 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT