* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX AL062019 08/27/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 32 33 36 37 32 26 25 25 22 17 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 32 33 36 37 32 26 26 29 26 21 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 31 32 30 28 28 33 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 16 18 17 10 10 25 33 45 49 41 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -3 -2 0 0 5 -2 -1 -3 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 347 333 337 338 339 246 195 222 226 240 242 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.2 28.2 27.8 27.6 27.5 24.3 18.9 18.5 15.0 9.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 138 134 132 133 104 79 78 72 67 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 114 114 116 113 112 116 93 74 72 68 65 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -52.5 -52.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.5 0.0 -0.2 0.3 1.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 7 5 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 59 59 60 62 56 49 43 44 50 52 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 5 3 7 12 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -19 -10 11 10 -4 -9 -50 -30 27 67 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 18 6 -8 34 30 49 27 45 35 55 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 0 5 -2 -3 0 -12 8 6 -10 -3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 578 516 454 399 366 434 312 128 70 -11 298 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.5 32.1 32.6 33.6 34.5 36.9 40.4 43.6 46.4 49.2 51.9 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 71.7 72.0 72.3 72.2 72.1 70.5 67.1 62.5 59.2 55.4 51.2 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 8 10 11 18 22 21 18 19 18 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 19 20 18 19 30 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 3. -4. -13. -22. -27. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -15. -11. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 7. 2. -4. -5. -5. -8. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 31.5 71.7 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062019 SIX 08/27/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.51 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.36 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.50 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.77 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 148.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 13.0% 9.6% 6.9% 6.5% 9.0% 9.4% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 2.0% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 1.3% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 5.0% 3.7% 2.5% 2.2% 3.4% 3.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062019 SIX 08/27/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062019 SIX 08/27/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 32 33 36 37 32 26 26 29 26 21 18HR AGO 30 29 30 30 31 34 35 30 24 24 27 24 19 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 27 30 31 26 20 20 23 20 15 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 24 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT