* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX AL062019 08/27/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 35 37 41 45 41 35 26 24 20 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 35 37 41 45 41 35 31 29 26 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 31 32 34 36 35 33 29 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 20 15 14 16 12 9 19 36 48 50 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -9 -5 -3 -4 -2 0 6 -1 -1 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 333 344 353 327 332 351 255 218 230 233 239 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.4 27.3 27.3 21.3 19.1 13.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 145 141 139 143 130 131 88 80 71 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 117 116 117 115 116 121 112 114 79 74 68 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.5 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 7 5 4 1 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 56 57 60 59 61 56 50 45 44 46 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 11 10 10 10 10 7 6 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -16 -15 -18 -13 6 -11 -2 -31 -23 32 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 2 9 34 13 0 28 11 46 22 40 48 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 1 -1 0 4 -2 8 15 29 38 -7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 601 596 592 566 540 479 546 424 224 48 7 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.1 31.3 31.4 31.8 32.2 34.0 36.4 39.3 42.5 45.9 49.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 71.8 71.7 71.6 71.6 71.5 71.0 69.4 66.5 63.0 59.3 55.6 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 4 7 11 16 19 21 22 22 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 23 22 21 21 21 31 19 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):115/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 15. 17. 18. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 5. 0. -7. -17. -21. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -12. -15. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 11. 15. 11. 5. -4. -6. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 31.1 71.8 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062019 SIX 08/27/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.49 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.52 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 45.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.55 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 170.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 14.1% 10.1% 6.5% 6.4% 8.7% 12.0% 12.5% Logistic: 1.6% 3.1% 2.7% 0.6% 0.1% 1.0% 1.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 5.8% 4.3% 2.4% 2.1% 3.2% 4.4% 4.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062019 SIX 08/27/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062019 SIX 08/27/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 34 35 37 41 45 41 35 31 29 26 18HR AGO 30 29 31 32 33 35 39 43 39 33 29 27 24 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 30 34 38 34 28 24 22 19 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 23 27 31 27 21 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT