* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX AL062019 08/26/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 35 37 40 45 47 42 34 25 29 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 35 37 40 45 47 42 34 30 34 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 32 33 34 37 39 38 35 30 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 16 17 12 16 5 13 26 37 44 45 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 -2 -7 -5 -2 0 -2 3 -3 -1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 293 292 321 330 338 322 352 231 215 229 232 238 257 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.2 27.5 27.2 20.6 19.0 13.9 9.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 142 139 138 142 139 132 130 85 80 72 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 119 115 112 112 116 116 113 112 77 74 69 68 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.4 0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 53 53 53 57 59 59 59 54 46 43 48 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 7 5 3 11 850 MB ENV VOR 12 -11 -22 -24 -24 -29 -2 -17 -8 -23 -36 13 34 200 MB DIV 28 2 -5 14 11 6 22 17 44 27 41 50 55 700-850 TADV 4 0 4 2 0 6 2 7 5 22 29 -15 49 LAND (KM) 500 517 534 530 526 493 468 504 363 187 57 6 337 LAT (DEG N) 31.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 3 4 6 10 15 19 21 22 24 25 HEAT CONTENT 25 24 22 21 21 22 22 34 15 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 15. 18. 19. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. -2. -9. -17. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -9. -13. -16. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 15. 17. 12. 4. -5. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 31.7 72.6 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062019 SIX 08/26/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.57 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.52 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 34.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.66 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 176.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 13.3% 9.7% 6.7% 6.4% 8.6% 11.0% 14.4% Logistic: 1.2% 1.9% 1.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 5.2% 3.8% 2.4% 2.2% 3.1% 3.9% 4.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062019 SIX 08/26/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062019 SIX 08/26/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 34 35 37 40 45 47 42 34 30 34 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 33 35 38 43 45 40 32 28 32 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 31 34 39 41 36 28 24 28 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 23 26 31 33 28 20 16 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT